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Manchester United v Tottenham

Manchester United

1–1Full time

Tottenham

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Old Trafford

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham MANCHESTER UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Manchester United win~~53%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.942

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester United win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester United 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
1′KICK-OFF Manchester United v Tottenham
3′Little has changed for our model: Manchester United 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Conor Gallagher · Tottenham
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
45′Tottenham have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 42–35–23
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Manchester United win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Manchester United 0–0 Tottenham
46′SECOND HALF Manchester United 0–0 Tottenham
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Manchester United 1–0 Tottenham
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Manchester United · On: Joshua Zirkzee · Off: Amad Diallo Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Manchester United · On: Diogo Dalot · Off: Leny Yoro Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Manchester United · On: Carlos Baleba · Off: Youri Tielemans Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tottenham · On: Rodrigo Bentancur · Off: Lucas Bergvall Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tottenham · On: Omar Marmoush · Off: Mohammed Kudus Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Manchester United 1–0 Tottenham
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Manchester United 1–0 Tottenham · Bryan Mbeumo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tottenham · On: James Maddison · Off: Conor Gallagher Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tottenham · On: Micky van de Ven · Off: Destiny Udogie Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Jan Paul van Hecke · Tottenham
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Luke Shaw · Manchester United
80′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Lisandro Martínez · Manchester United
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tottenham · On: Mateus Fernandes · Off: Marcos Senesi Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham · Bryan Mbeumo
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham · Dominic Solanke
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Manchester United · On: Marcus Rashford · Off: Matheus Cunha Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Manchester United · On: Ayden Heaven · Off: Luke Shaw Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Diogo Dalot · Manchester United
90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Archie Gray · Tottenham
FTFULL TIME Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham
FTManchester United 1–1 Tottenham · Manchester United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Manchester United win53%

Draw23%

Tottenham win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Tottenham XI vs Manchester United: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Tottenham, Manchester United Manchester United XI vs Tottenham: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Manchester United, Tottenham Manchester United v Tottenham: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Manchester United, Tottenham

Man Utd vs Spurs team news LIVE!Sky Sports · 1 hour ago · Manchester United

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Old Trafford

Referee · Stuart Attwell

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

1 S. Lammens

15 L. Yoro

5 H. Maguire

6 L. Martinez

23 L. Shaw

18 Y. Tielemans

37 K. Mainoo

16 A. Diallo

8 B. Fernandes

10 M. Cunha

19 B. Mbeumo

Coach · Michael Carrick

Substitutes

12 · K. Darlow

2 · D. Dalot

26 · A. Heaven

7 · M. Mount

17 · Andrey Santos

20 · C. Baleba

11 · J. Zirkzee

9 · M. Rashford

31 · S. Lacey

Tottenham

4-2-3-1

31 A. Kinsky

14 A. Gray

6 J. P. van Hecke

5 M. Senesi

13 D. Udogie

15 L. Bergvall

16 S. Tonali

20 M. Kudus

8 C. Gallagher

17 Sávio

19 D. Solanke

Coach · Roberto De Zerbi

Substitutes

39 · M. Dubravka

37 · M. van de Ven

33 · B. Davies

4 · T. Adarabioyo

10 · J. Maddison

30 · R. Bentancur

18 · M. Fernandes

11 · M. Tel

22 · O. Marmoush

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

1 S. Lammens

15 L. Yoro

5 H. Maguire

6 L. Martinez

23 L. Shaw

18 Y. Tielemans

37 K. Mainoo

16 A. Diallo

8 B. Fernandes

10 M. Cunha

19 B. Mbeumo

Coach · Michael Carrick

Substitutes

12 · K. Darlow

2 · D. Dalot

26 · A. Heaven

7 · M. Mount

17 · Andrey Santos

20 · C. Baleba

11 · J. Zirkzee

9 · M. Rashford

31 · S. Lacey

Tottenham

4-2-3-1

31 A. Kinsky

14 A. Gray

6 J. P. van Hecke

5 M. Senesi

13 D. Udogie

15 L. Bergvall

16 S. Tonali

20 M. Kudus

8 C. Gallagher

17 Sávio

19 D. Solanke

Coach · Roberto De Zerbi

Substitutes

39 · M. Dubravka

37 · M. van de Ven

33 · B. Davies

4 · T. Adarabioyo

10 · J. Maddison

30 · R. Bentancur

18 · M. Fernandes

11 · M. Tel

22 · O. Marmoush

Our number · manchester united winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

53% The market55%

Us53%

~~Market~~55%

We make Manchester United a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · manchester united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manchester United win	53%	55%	−2
Draw	23%	23%	0
Tottenham win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−5
Manchester United or draw	76%	78%	−2
Manchester United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Tottenham clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 5.0 3.3 1 8.1 10.7 6.1 2.5 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.1 6.0 3.6 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manchester United down, Tottenham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,950 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manchester United at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tottenham away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Manchester United, 1.21 for Tottenham. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAN 2–0 TOT · TOT 2–2 MAN · TOT 1–0 MAN · MAN 0–3 TOT

Form · last six in Premier League

MANCHESTER UNITED

WLWDLD3–0 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

TOTTENHAM

WLLDDL1–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	−2	7
11	Ipswich	5	−4	6
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Sunderland	5	−4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	−5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	−2	3
18	Coventry	5	−9	3
19	Fulham	5	−3	2
20	Tottenham	5	−6	2