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Manchester United v Bournemouth
Manchester UnitedBournemouthPremier League · SUN 25 OCT · Old Trafford
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Manchester United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Manchester United 47%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Manchester United win47%Bournemouth win28%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueOld Trafford
RefereeJarred Gillett
Match timeline
All events
Manchester UnitedMINBournemouthEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
Manchester United blow as Bournemouth confirm massive injury boost for Old Trafford tripEvening Standard · · Manchester United, Bournemouth Ruben Amorim reminded of Man Utd misery after cock-up in AC Milan's defeat at BournemouthMirror Football · · Manchester United, AC Milan, Bournemouth
Manchester United XI vs Bournemouth: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · · Manchester United, Bournemouth Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Manchester United a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Bournemouth win | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Manchester United or draw | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug
MANCHESTER UNITED
BOURNEMOUTH
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | −3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | −1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | −8 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | −4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | −9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.