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Manchester City v Ipswich

Manchester City
3–2Full time
Ipswich

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Etihad Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich MANCHESTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Manchester City win80%
The market said76%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.059
The market’s Brier score0.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 80%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–7
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City v Ipswich
  4. 6′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 80% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–14–7
  5. 19′Manchester City find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  6. 19′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  7. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Manchester City 1–0 Ipswich
  8. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 92% now
  9. 21′21′: Daizen Maeda on the scoresheet for Ipswich. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  10. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Manchester City 1–1 Ipswich · Daizen Maeda
  11. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 75% now
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
  13. 35′Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City on 34′. 1–1 · 70–21–9
  14. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich · Erling Haaland
  15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich
  18. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Manchester City · On: Enzo Fernández · Off: Mateo Kovačić
  19. 62′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 2–1 · 90–8–1
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Manchester City · On: Josko Gvardiol · Off: Nico O'Reilly
  21. 70′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  22. 70′Manchester City ahead on 69′ through Erling Haaland. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  23. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Manchester City 3–1 Ipswich
  24. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Azor Matusiwa · Off: Florentino Luís
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Off: Daizen Maeda
  27. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Abdoul Ouattara · Ipswich
  28. 76′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Abdukodir Khusanov · Off: Matheus Nunes
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Elliot Anderson · Off: Phil Foden
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Antoine Semenyo · Off: Jeremy Doku
  33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ipswich · On: Zian Flemming · Off: Emersonn
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ipswich · On: Chuba Akpom · Off: Julio Enciso
  35. 86′Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City on 85′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 86′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Manchester City 4–1 Ipswich · Erling Haaland
  38. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Manchester City
  39. 91′Zian Flemming scores for Ipswich on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  40. 91′PENALTY · 88' Ipswich
  41. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich · Zian Flemming (penalty)
  42. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ipswich · On: Jack Clarke · Off: Jacob Greaves
  43. 98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Josko Gvardiol · Manchester City
  44. 103′🟨 YELLOW · 90+12' Leif Davis · Ipswich
  45. FTFULL TIME Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich
  46. FTManchester City 3–2 Ipswich · Manchester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester City are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Manchester City v IpswichBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Manchester City win80%
Draw13%
Ipswich win7%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEtihad Stadium

RefereeFarai Hallam

Line-ups

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

Ipswich

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manchester City

Ipswich

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Manchester City6+1118
10Ipswich6−39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

1 G. Donnarumma

27 M. Nunes

3 R. Dias

6 M. Guehi

33 N. O'Reilly

8 M. Kovacic

32 A. Bouaddi

7 I. Ndiaye

47 P. Foden

11 J. Doku

9 E. Haaland

Coach · Enzo Maresca

Substitutes

28 · G. Rulli

21 · R. Ait-Nouri

24 · J. Gvardiol

45 · A. Khusanov

10 · R. Cherki

5 · E. Anderson

17 · E. Fernandez

37 · Allan Elias

42 · A. Semenyo

Ipswich

3-4-2-1

28 C. Walton

26 D. O'Shea

6 I. Diop

24 J. Greaves

42 A. Ouattara

12 Florentino

25 E. Palacios

3 L. Davis

38 D. Maeda

10 J. Enciso

19 Emersonn

Coach · Gary O'Neil

Substitutes

37 · K. Scherpen

4 · C. Kipre

2 · D. Furlong

5 · A. Matusiwa

9 · Z. Flemming

47 · J. Clarke

11 · J. Philogene

29 · C. Akpom

7 · I. Fatawu

Our number · manchester city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
80% The market76%
Us80%
Market76%

We make Manchester City an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Manchester City v Ipswich3.02 – 0.78
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 AugW6 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 18 v 91 v 10
The market · Manchester City win76% · ours 80%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 11 OCT 03:5817 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Manchester City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Manchester City win80%76%+4
Draw13%14%−1
Ipswich win7%9%−2
Over 2.5 goals72%73%−1
Both teams to score51%57%−6
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals52%53%−1
Manchester City or draw93%91%+2
Manchester City clean sheet46%––
Ipswich clean sheet5%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%
0123450 2.8 1 6.7 5.8 2.2 2 10.1 7.8 3.1 3 9.9 7.6 3.0 4 7.5 5.6 2.2 5 4.7 3.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Manchester City down, Ipswich across0–5 goals a side shown (90.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting5.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsIPS 0–6 MAN · MAN 4–1 IPS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

MANCHESTER CITY

WWWWWW2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 5–3 · 3–0

IPSWICH

WLLWLW2–1 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Manchester City6+1118
2Arsenal6+515
3Brighton6+1313
4Brentford6+610
5Everton6+310
6Chelsea6+210
7Leeds6+39
8Hull City6+29
9Liverpool609
10Ipswich6−39
11Newcastle6−38
12Crystal Palace6−37
13Manchester United606
14Coventry6−66
15Nottingham Forest6−35
16Aston Villa6−55
17Sunderland6−64
18Bournemouth6−63
19Tottenham6−63
20Fulham6−42

The competition's standings before kick-off.