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Manchester City v Ipswich
Manchester City
IpswichPremier League · SAT 17 OCT · Etihad Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 80%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–7
- 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City v Ipswich
- 6′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 80% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–14–7
- 19′Manchester City find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
- 19′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
- 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Manchester City 1–0 Ipswich
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 92% now
- 21′21′: Daizen Maeda on the scoresheet for Ipswich. 1–0 · 92–6–2
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Manchester City 1–1 Ipswich · Daizen Maeda
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 75% now
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
- 35′Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City on 34′. 1–1 · 70–21–9
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich · Erling Haaland
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich
- 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City 2–1 Ipswich
- 51′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Manchester City · On: Enzo Fernández · Off: Mateo Kovačić
- 62′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 2–1 · 90–8–1
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Manchester City · On: Josko Gvardiol · Off: Nico O'Reilly
- 70′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 70′Manchester City ahead on 69′ through Erling Haaland. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Manchester City 3–1 Ipswich
- 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Azor Matusiwa · Off: Florentino Luís
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Off: Daizen Maeda
- 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Abdoul Ouattara · Ipswich
- 76′We said Manchester City at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Manchester City win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Abdukodir Khusanov · Off: Matheus Nunes
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Elliot Anderson · Off: Phil Foden
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Manchester City · On: Antoine Semenyo · Off: Jeremy Doku
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ipswich · On: Zian Flemming · Off: Emersonn
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ipswich · On: Chuba Akpom · Off: Julio Enciso
- 86′Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City on 85′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 86′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Manchester City 4–1 Ipswich · Erling Haaland
- 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Manchester City
- 91′Zian Flemming scores for Ipswich on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 91′PENALTY · 88' Ipswich
- 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich · Zian Flemming (penalty)
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ipswich · On: Jack Clarke · Off: Jacob Greaves
- 98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Josko Gvardiol · Manchester City
- 103′🟨 YELLOW · 90+12' Leif Davis · Ipswich
- FTFULL TIME Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich
- FTManchester City 3–2 Ipswich · Manchester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassManchester City are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Manchester City win80%
Ipswich win7%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 7
VenueEtihad Stadium
RefereeFarai Hallam
Match timeline
All events
Manchester CityMIN
IpswichEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
Ipswich
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Manchester City
Ipswich
Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Will Erling Haaland start against Ipswich? Latest Man City team news after injury scareEvening Standard · · Ipswich, Manchester City Man City XI vs Ipswich: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup and injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · · Manchester City, Ipswich
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma
27 M. Nunes
3 R. Dias
6 M. Guehi
33 N. O'Reilly
8 M. Kovacic
32 A. Bouaddi
7 I. Ndiaye
47 P. Foden
11 J. Doku
9 E. Haaland
Coach · Enzo Maresca
Substitutes
28 · G. Rulli
21 · R. Ait-Nouri
24 · J. Gvardiol
45 · A. Khusanov
10 · R. Cherki
5 · E. Anderson
17 · E. Fernandez
37 · Allan Elias
42 · A. Semenyo
Ipswich
3-4-2-1
28 C. Walton
26 D. O'Shea
6 I. Diop
24 J. Greaves
42 A. Ouattara
12 Florentino
25 E. Palacios
3 L. Davis
38 D. Maeda
10 J. Enciso
19 Emersonn
Coach · Gary O'Neil
Substitutes
37 · K. Scherpen
4 · C. Kipre
2 · D. Furlong
5 · A. Matusiwa
9 · Z. Flemming
47 · J. Clarke
11 · J. Philogene
29 · C. Akpom
7 · I. Fatawu
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma
27 M. Nunes
3 R. Dias
6 M. Guehi
33 N. O'Reilly
8 M. Kovacic
32 A. Bouaddi
7 I. Ndiaye
47 P. Foden
11 J. Doku
9 E. Haaland
Coach · Enzo Maresca
Substitutes
28 · G. Rulli
21 · R. Ait-Nouri
24 · J. Gvardiol
45 · A. Khusanov
10 · R. Cherki
5 · E. Anderson
17 · E. Fernandez
37 · Allan Elias
42 · A. Semenyo
Ipswich
3-4-2-1
28 C. Walton
26 D. O'Shea
6 I. Diop
24 J. Greaves
42 A. Ouattara
12 Florentino
25 E. Palacios
3 L. Davis
38 D. Maeda
10 J. Enciso
19 Emersonn
Coach · Gary O'Neil
Substitutes
37 · K. Scherpen
4 · C. Kipre
2 · D. Furlong
5 · A. Matusiwa
9 · Z. Flemming
47 · J. Clarke
11 · J. Philogene
29 · C. Akpom
7 · I. Fatawu
We make Manchester City an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | −1 |
| Ipswich win | 7% | 9% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Manchester City or draw | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
| Ipswich clean sheet | 5% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug
MANCHESTER CITY
IPSWICH
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | −3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | −3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | −3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | −6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | −3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | −5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | −6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | −6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | −6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | −4 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Arsenal
Brighton
Brentford
Everton
Chelsea
Leeds
Hull City
Liverpool
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Manchester United
Coventry
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Bournemouth
Tottenham
Fulham