Liverpool v Manchester City prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City MANCHESTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manchester City win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.468

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manchester City was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
1′KICK-OFF Liverpool v Manchester City
2′Much as we predicted: Manchester City was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Ronald Araujo · Liverpool
45′HALF-TIME Liverpool 0–0 Manchester City
46′SECOND HALF Liverpool 0–0 Manchester City
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Manchester City · On: Jeremy Doku · Off: Iliman Ndiaye Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nico O'Reilly · Manchester City
63′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Liverpool 0–1 Manchester City
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Liverpool 0–1 Manchester City · Erling Haaland
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Liverpool · On: Treymaurice Nyoni · Off: Florian Wirtz Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Manchester City · On: Josko Gvardiol · Off: Nico O'Reilly Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Liverpool 0–2 Manchester City · Erling Haaland
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Liverpool 0–2 Manchester City · Jeremy Doku
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Liverpool · On: Jeremie Frimpong · Off: Ronald Araujo Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Liverpool · On: Rio Ngumoha · Off: Lewis Koumas Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City · Jeremy Doku
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City · Rayan Cherki
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Manchester City · On: Allan Andrade Elias · Off: Erling Haaland Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Manchester City · On: Ayyoub Bouaddi · Off: Enzo Fernández Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ayyoub Bouaddi · Manchester City
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Liverpool · On: Joe Gomez · Off: Jérémy Jacquet Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Liverpool · On: Federico Chiesa · Off: Bradley Barcola Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool
FTFULL TIME Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City
FTLiverpool 0–3 Manchester City · Manchester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Liverpool win34%

Draw25%

Manchester City win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueAnfield

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Liverpool

Manchester City

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
7	Liverpool	5	+3	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Why Dominik Szoboszlai is a shock absentee for Liverpool vs Man City showdownEvening Standard · 29 min ago · Liverpool, Manchester City How Man City avoided hostile reception at Anfield before Liverpool showdownEvening Standard · 40 min ago · Manchester City, Liverpool Liverpool XI vs Man City: NO Szoboszlai - starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Liverpool, Manchester City

Man City XI vs Liverpool: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Manchester City, Liverpool

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

1 Alisson

33 R. Araujo

5 J. Jacquet

4 V. van Dijk

6 M. Kerkez

38 R. Gravenberch

10 A. Mac Allister

23 V. Munoz

7 F. Wirtz

29 B. Barcola

67 L. Koumas

Coach · Andoni Iraola

Substitutes

25 · G. Mamardashvili

21 · K. Tsimikas

2 · J. Gomez

30 · J. Frimpong

3 · W. Endo

53 · J. McConnell

42 · T. Nyoni

14 · F. Chiesa

73 · R. Ngumoha

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

1 G. Donnarumma

27 M. Nunes

3 R. Dias

6 M. Guehi

33 N. O'Reilly

5 E. Anderson

17 E. Fernandez

7 I. Ndiaye

10 R. Cherki

42 A. Semenyo

9 E. Haaland

Coach · Enzo Maresca

Substitutes

28 · G. Rulli

24 · J. Gvardiol

82 · R. Lewis

22 · Vitor Reis

45 · A. Khusanov

8 · M. Kovacic

37 · Allan Elias

32 · A. Bouaddi

11 · J. Doku

Our number · manchester city winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Manchester City a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · manchester city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liverpool win	34%	30%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Manchester City win	41%	44%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−3
Liverpool or draw	59%	56%	+3
Liverpool clean sheet	20%	–	–
Manchester City clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.4 7.1 6.1 3.3 1 6.3 11.4 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.8 6.2 3.4 3 2.4 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool down, Manchester City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,956 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liverpool at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester City away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Liverpool, 1.61 for Manchester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIV 1–2 MAN · MAN 3–0 LIV · MAN 0–2 LIV · LIV 2–0 MAN

Form · last six in Premier League

LIVERPOOL

DDDWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

MANCHESTER CITY

LWWWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Chelsea	6	+2	10
6	Leeds	6	+3	9
7	Liverpool	5	+3	9
8	Everton	5	+3	9
9	Ipswich	6	−3	9
10	Hull City	5	+2	8
11	Newcastle	5	0	8
12	Manchester United	6	0	6
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Sunderland	6	−6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
18	Tottenham	6	−6	3
19	Coventry	5	−9	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2