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Liverpool v Brighton
LiverpoolBrightonPremier League · SUN 25 OCT · Anfield
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Liverpool are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool 47%, draw 24%, Brighton 29%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Liverpool win47%Brighton win29%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueAnfield
RefereeSamuel Barrott
Match timeline
All events
LiverpoolMINBrightonEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Liverpool
Brighton
Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
Liverpool latest: Barcola, Munoz, Szoboszlai updates ahead of Brighton clashSky Sports · · Liverpool, Brighton
Liverpool XI vs Brighton: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup and injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · · Liverpool, Brighton
Liverpool XI vs Brighton: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · · Liverpool, Brighton Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Liverpool a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Brighton win | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Liverpool or draw | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Brighton clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug
LIVERPOOL
BRIGHTON
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | −3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | −1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | −8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | −4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | −9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.