Leeds v Manchester United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Leeds 1–1 Manchester United MANCHESTER UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Manchester United win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester United win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manchester United was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Leeds v Manchester United
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Gabriel Gudmundsson · Leeds
35′We published Manchester United at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Leeds 0–1 Manchester United
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Manchester United win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
36′35′: Bryan Mbeumo on the scoresheet for Manchester United, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
45′We published Manchester United at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Leeds 0–1 Manchester United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester United · On: Noussair Mazraoui · Off: Lisandro Martínez Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Leeds 0–1 Manchester United
52′Dominic Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds on 51′. 0–1 · 7–21–72
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Leeds 1–1 Manchester United · Dominic Calvert-Lewin
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Manchester United win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Manchester United win 30%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Manchester United win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 25–49–26
65′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
73′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Manchester United win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Leeds · On: Lukas Nmecha · Off: Noah Okafor Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Manchester United · On: Mason Mount · Off: Carlos Baleba Corrected
79′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Leeds · On: Sean Longstaff · Off: Ao Tanaka Corrected
84′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Manchester United win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Manchester United · On: Matheus Cunha · Off: Youri Tielemans Corrected
91′We said Manchester United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Ethan Ampadu · Leeds
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Andrey Santos · Manchester United
FTFULL TIME Leeds 1–1 Manchester United
FTLeeds 1–1 Manchester United · Manchester United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Manchester United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Leeds 36%, draw 26%, Manchester United 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Leeds v Manchester UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leeds win36%

Draw26%

Manchester United win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueElland Road

RefereeDarren England

Line-ups

Leeds

3-4-2-1

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leeds

Manchester United

8Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Leeds	6	+3	9
14	Manchester United	6	0	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Leeds United v Manchester United: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 18 Oct 13:12 · Leeds, Manchester United

Manchester United XI vs Leeds: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 18 Oct 13:12 · Manchester United, Leeds Manchester United: Double injury blow 'confirmed' before Leeds clashEvening Standard · 18 Oct 11:35 · Manchester United, Leeds

Manchester United feel heat as they travel to Leeds; Martínez thanks fans after surgery – matchday liveThe Guardian · 18 Oct 08:22 · Manchester United, Leeds

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leeds

3-4-2-1

1 J. Trafford

24 J. Justin

30 N. Elvedi

5 T. Muharemovic

2 J. Bogle

4 E. Ampadu

22 A. Tanaka

3 G. Gudmundsson

18 A. Stach

19 N. Okafor

9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Coach · Daniel Farke

Substitutes

16 · M. Zetterer

15 · J. Bijol

26 · M. Bard

10 · H. Wilson

23 · J. Bahoya

8 · S. Longstaff

44 · I. Gruev

11 · B. Aaronson

14 · L. Nmecha

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

1 S. Lammens

15 L. Yoro

5 H. Maguire

6 L. Martinez

2 D. Dalot

17 Andrey Santos

20 C. Baleba

16 A. Diallo

18 Y. Tielemans

8 B. Fernandes

19 B. Mbeumo

Coach · Michael Carrick

Substitutes

12 · K. Darlow

4 · M. de Ligt

3 · N. Mazraoui

41 · H. Amass

7 · M. Mount

11 · J. Zirkzee

9 · M. Rashford

10 · M. Cunha

31 · S. Lacey

Our number · manchester united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Manchester United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leeds v Manchester United~~1.41 – 1.46

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~8 v 14

~~The market · Manchester United win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manchester United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leeds win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Manchester United win	38%	34%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Leeds or draw	62%	66%	−4
Leeds clean sheet	24%	–	–
Manchester United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.8 6.1 3.0 1 7.6 12.0 8.3 4.1 2 5.7 8.1 5.8 2.9 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leeds down, Manchester United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leeds at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester United away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Leeds, 1.46 for Manchester United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAN 1–2 LEE · LEE 1–1 MAN · LEE 0–2 MAN · MAN 2–2 LEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

LEEDS

WDDWDL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

MANCHESTER UNITED

LWDLDD0–2 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	7	+12	21
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	+5	10
7	Everton	7	+1	10
8	Leeds	6	+3	9
9	Hull City	7	+1	9
10	Ipswich	7	−4	9
11	Newcastle	7	−4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	−4	8
13	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
14	Manchester United	6	0	6
15	Coventry	6	−6	6
16	Fulham	7	−3	5
17	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
18	Sunderland	6	−6	4
19	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
20	Tottenham	6	−6	3