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Ipswich v Fulham

Ipswich

2–1Full time

Fulham

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Portman Road Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Ipswich 2–1 Fulham FULHAM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fulham win~~46%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fulham win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Fulham 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
2′KICK-OFF Ipswich v Fulham
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Leif Davis · Ipswich
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Josh King · Fulham
45′SECOND HALF Ipswich 0–0 Fulham
49′Fulham have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–40–35
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fulham win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fulham win 35%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Calvin Bassey · Fulham
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ipswich 0–1 Fulham
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ipswich 0–1 Fulham · Ryan Sessegnon
62′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Leif Davis · Ipswich
62′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Josh King · Fulham
62′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Calvin Bassey · Fulham
62′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ipswich 0–1 Fulham · Ryan Sessegnon
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ipswich · On: Exequiel Palacios · Off: Florentino Luís Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ipswich · On: Jack Clarke · Off: Jaden Philogene-Bidace Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Chuba Akpom · Off: Julio Enciso Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ipswich · On: Zian Flemming · Off: Emersonn Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Fulham · On: Manuel Ángel Morán · Off: Shea Charles Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fulham · On: Rodrigo Muniz · Off: Josh King Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fulham · On: Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo · Off: Oscar Bobb Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ipswich · On: Sindre Walle Egeli · Off: Daizen Maeda Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Manuel Ángel Morán · Fulham
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fulham · On: Hugo Larsson · Off: Gonzalo García Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fulham · On: Emile Smith Rowe · Off: Alex Iwobi Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ipswich 1–1 Fulham · Ryan Sessegnon
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ipswich 1–1 Fulham · Abdoul Ouattara
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Ipswich 2–1 Fulham · Abdoul Ouattara
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Ipswich 2–1 Fulham · Dara O'Shea
95′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham
FTFULL TIME Ipswich 2–1 Fulham
FTIpswich 2–1 Fulham · Fulham win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ipswich win29%

Draw25%

Fulham win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ipswich vs Fulham team news LIVE!Sky Sports · 2 hours ago · Ipswich, Fulham

West Brom missed out on £12m Ipswich Town star - One player will love itFootball League World · 7 hours ago · West Brom, Ipswich

Chris Sutton makes Ipswich Town claim - Norwich City fans won't be happyFootball League World · 22 hours ago · Ipswich, Norwich

Alvaro Arbeloa confirms Antonee Robinson injury scare in three-man Fulham updateEvening Standard · 1 day ago · Fulham

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Portman Road Stadium

Referee · Lewis Smith

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ipswich

4-2-3-1

28 C. Walton

42 A. Ouattara

6 I. Diop

26 D. O'Shea

3 L. Davis

23 S. Lukic

12 Florentino

38 D. Maeda

10 J. Enciso

11 J. Philogene

19 Emersonn

Coach · Gary O'Neil

Substitutes

37 · K. Scherpen

2 · D. Furlong

24 · J. Greaves

25 · E. Palacios

5 · A. Matusiwa

9 · Z. Flemming

47 · J. Clarke

8 · S. W. Egeli

29 · C. Akpom

Fulham

4-2-3-1

1 B. Leno

2 K. Tete

22 D. Affengruber

3 C. Bassey

30 R. Sessegnon

16 S. Berge

19 S. Charles

14 O. Bobb

24 J. King

17 A. Iwobi

7 G. Garcia

Coach · Alvaro Arbeloa

Substitutes

23 · B. Lecomte

5 · J. Andersen

21 · T. Castagne

32 · E. Smith Rowe

20 · Manuel Angel

8 · C. Palacios

15 · H. Larsson

11 · Kevin

9 · Rodrigo Muniz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ipswich

4-2-3-1

28 C. Walton

42 A. Ouattara

6 I. Diop

26 D. O'Shea

3 L. Davis

23 S. Lukic

12 Florentino

38 D. Maeda

10 J. Enciso

11 J. Philogene

19 Emersonn

Coach · Gary O'Neil

Substitutes

37 · K. Scherpen

2 · D. Furlong

24 · J. Greaves

25 · E. Palacios

5 · A. Matusiwa

9 · Z. Flemming

47 · J. Clarke

8 · S. W. Egeli

29 · C. Akpom

Fulham

4-2-3-1

1 B. Leno

2 K. Tete

22 D. Affengruber

3 C. Bassey

30 R. Sessegnon

16 S. Berge

19 S. Charles

14 O. Bobb

24 J. King

17 A. Iwobi

7 G. Garcia

Coach · Alvaro Arbeloa

Substitutes

23 · B. Lecomte

5 · J. Andersen

21 · T. Castagne

32 · E. Smith Rowe

20 · Manuel Angel

8 · C. Palacios

15 · H. Larsson

11 · Kevin

9 · Rodrigo Muniz

Our number · fulham winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market38%

Us46%

~~Market~~38%

We make Fulham a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fulham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ipswich win	29%	35%	−6
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Fulham win	46%	38%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	0
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Ipswich or draw	54%	62%	−8
Ipswich clean sheet	20%	–	–
Fulham clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 8.8 7.5 4.1 1 6.6 11.9 9.0 4.9 2.0 2 4.5 7.0 5.6 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ipswich down, Fulham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,950 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ipswich at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fulham away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Ipswich, 1.62 for Fulham. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FUL 2–2 IPS · IPS 1–1 FUL

Form · last six in Premier League

IPSWICH

LWLLWL1–3 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

FULHAM

WLLLDD2–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	−2	7
11	Ipswich	5	−4	6
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Sunderland	5	−4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	−5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	−2	3
18	Coventry	5	−9	3
19	Fulham	5	−3	2
20	Tottenham	5	−6	2