Hull City v Everton prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Hull City 2–2 Everton HULL CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hull City win~~39%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hull City win at 39%.
0′Much as we predicted: Hull City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Hull City v Everton
2′Much as we predicted: Hull City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Matt Crooks · Hull City
20′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Oliver McBurnie · Hull City
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Hull City 0–0 Everton · Brennan Johnson
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Hull City win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Hull City 0–0 Everton
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hull City win 32%)
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hull City win 32%)
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Hull City 0–0 Everton · Joe Gelhardt
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Hull City 1–0 Everton · Joe Gelhardt
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hull City 1–1 Everton · Joe Gelhardt
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hull City 1–1 Everton · Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hull City · On: Elliot Stroud · Off: Ryan Giles Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hull City · On: Lucas Herrington · Off: Matt Crooks Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Everton · On: Tyrique George · Off: Brennan Johnson Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Hull City 1–1 Everton · Thierno Barry
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hull City 1–2 Everton · Thierno Barry
72′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hull City 1–2 Everton · Mohamed Belloumi
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hull City 2–2 Everton · Mohamed Belloumi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hull City · On: Hidemasa Morita · Off: Regan Slater Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Everton · On: Hayden Hackney · Off: Harrison Armstrong Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Everton · On: Jake O'Brien · Off: Ainsley Maitland-Niles Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hull City · On: Robinio Vaz · Off: Sorba Thomas Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Everton · On: Tyler Dibling · Off: Jack Grealish Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Everton · On: Charly Alcaraz · Off: Thierno Barry Corrected
FTFULL TIME Hull City 2–2 Everton
FTHull City 2–2 Everton · Hull City win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hull City win39%

Draw29%

Everton win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueMKM Stadium

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Line-ups

Hull City

5-4-1

Everton

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hull City

Everton

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Everton	5	+3	9
10	Hull City	5	+2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Hull bench Belloumi with Mykolenko missing for Everton LIVE!Sky Sports · 39 min ago · Everton

Southampton v Portsmouth, Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest, Hull v Everton: football – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Southampton, Portsmouth, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Everton

Hull City ace breaks silence on failed Birmingham City, Leeds United transferFootball League World · 20 hours ago · Hull City, Birmingham

Julian Schuster references Merlin Röhl interview when describing ‘top’ Freiburg cultureGet German Football News · 1 day ago · SC Freiburg, FC Schalke 04, Everton

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hull City

5-4-1

19 K. Tzolakis

2 L. Coyle

6 S. Ajayi

15 J. Egan

32 N. Mendy

3 R. Giles

11 J. Gelhardt

25 M. Crooks

27 R. Slater

7 S. Thomas

9 O. McBurnie

Coach · Sergej Jakirovic

Substitutes

12 · D. Phillips

17 · P. McNair

18 · B. Norton-Cuffy

22 · L. Herrington

5 · H. Morita

21 · E. Stroud

42 · T. Iroegbunam

10 · M. Belloumi

47 · R. Vaz

Everton

4-2-3-1

1 J. Pickford

2 A. Maitland-Niles

6 J. Tarkowski

5 M. Keane

4 J. Branthwaite

37 J. Garner

45 H. Armstrong

22 B. Johnson

8 K. Dewsbury-Hall

10 J. Grealish

11 T. Barry

Coach · Leighton Baines

Substitutes

12 · M. Travers

15 · J. O'Brien

24 · C. Alcaraz

23 · C. Norgaard

30 · H. Hackney

34 · M. Rohl

20 · T. Dibling

19 · T. George

58 · B. Graham

Our number · hull city winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market26%

Us39%

~~Market~~26%

We make Hull City a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hull city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hull City win	39%	26%	+13
Draw	29%	29%	+1
Everton win	32%	45%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−5
Hull City or draw	68%	55%	+14
Hull City clean sheet	35%	–	–
Everton clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.0 10.2 5.8 2.2 1 11.6 13.5 6.9 2.5 2 7.5 7.8 4.2 3 3.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hull City down, Everton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,956 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hull City at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Everton away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Hull City, 1.08 for Everton. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

HULL CITY

WWDDL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

EVERTON

LWDDDW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Chelsea	6	+2	10
6	Leeds	6	+3	9
7	Liverpool	5	+3	9
8	Everton	5	+3	9
9	Ipswich	6	−3	9
10	Hull City	5	+2	8
11	Newcastle	5	0	8
12	Manchester United	6	0	6
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Sunderland	6	−6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
18	Tottenham	6	−6	3
19	Coventry	5	−9	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2