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Fulham v Hull City
Fulham
Hull CityPremier League · SAT 17 OCT · Craven Cottage
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Fulham win at 43%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Fulham 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Fulham v Hull City
- 8′Little has changed for our model: Fulham 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Hull City
- 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Josh King · Fulham
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Regan Slater · Hull City
- 34′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–8
- 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Fulham 1–0 Hull City
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
- 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
- 35′Alex Iwobi scores for Fulham on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Fulham 1–0 Hull City
- 45′SECOND HALF Fulham 1–0 Hull City
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hull City · On: Tim Iroegbunam · Off: Lucas Herrington
- 47′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
- 64′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Robinio Vaz · Off: Matt Crooks
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Joe Gelhardt · Off: Sorba Thomas
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Ryan Giles · Off: Brooke Norton-Cuffy
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 74′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hull City · On: Hidemasa Morita · Off: Regan Slater
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fulham · On: Ryan Sessegnon · Off: Josh King
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fulham · On: Tom Cairney · Off: Oscar Bobb
- 80′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sander Berge · Fulham
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fulham · On: Cesar Palacios Perez · Off: Gonzalo García
- 87′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 95′Fulham are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
- 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham
- FTFULL TIME Fulham 1–0 Hull City
- FTFulham 1–0 Hull City · Fulham win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFulham are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Fulham 43%, draw 27%, Hull City 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Fulham win43%
Hull City win30%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 7
VenueCraven Cottage
RefereeChris Kavanagh
Match timeline
All events
FulhamMIN
Hull CityEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Fulham
4-2-3-1
Hull City
5-4-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Fulham
Hull City
Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League
Last match: 11 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Hull City latest: Jakirovic welcomes competition for places in attackSky Sports · · Hull City
Fulham boss Alvaro Arbeloa sends clear message to disgruntled squad amid sack rumours: 'Believe'Evening Standard · · Fulham
Mo Toure drops new Norwich City future claim after Hull City & Porto linksFootball League World · · Norwich, Hull City, FC Porto
Line-ups
Fulham
4-2-3-1
1 B. Leno
21 T. Castagne
22 D. Affengruber
3 C. Bassey
33 A. Robinson
16 S. Berge
19 S. Charles
14 O. Bobb
24 J. King
17 A. Iwobi
7 G. Garcia
Coach · Alvaro Arbeloa
Substitutes
23 · B. Lecomte
2 · K. Tete
5 · J. Andersen
10 · T. Cairney
30 · R. Sessegnon
20 · Manuel Angel
8 · C. Palacios
11 · Kevin
9 · Rodrigo Muniz
Hull City
5-4-1
19 K. Tzolakis
2 L. Coyle
6 S. Ajayi
15 J. Egan
22 L. Herrington
18 B. Norton-Cuffy
10 M. Belloumi
25 M. Crooks
27 R. Slater
7 S. Thomas
9 O. McBurnie
Coach · Sergej Jakirovic
Substitutes
12 · D. Phillips
17 · P. McNair
3 · R. Giles
5 · H. Morita
21 · E. Stroud
42 · T. Iroegbunam
14 · J. Hjerto-Dahl
47 · R. Vaz
11 · J. Gelhardt
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Fulham
4-2-3-1
1 B. Leno
21 T. Castagne
22 D. Affengruber
3 C. Bassey
33 A. Robinson
16 S. Berge
19 S. Charles
14 O. Bobb
24 J. King
17 A. Iwobi
7 G. Garcia
Coach · Alvaro Arbeloa
Substitutes
23 · B. Lecomte
2 · K. Tete
5 · J. Andersen
10 · T. Cairney
30 · R. Sessegnon
20 · Manuel Angel
8 · C. Palacios
11 · Kevin
9 · Rodrigo Muniz
Hull City
5-4-1
19 K. Tzolakis
2 L. Coyle
6 S. Ajayi
15 J. Egan
22 L. Herrington
18 B. Norton-Cuffy
10 M. Belloumi
25 M. Crooks
27 R. Slater
7 S. Thomas
9 O. McBurnie
Coach · Sergej Jakirovic
Substitutes
12 · D. Phillips
17 · P. McNair
3 · R. Giles
5 · H. Morita
21 · E. Stroud
42 · T. Iroegbunam
14 · J. Hjerto-Dahl
47 · R. Vaz
11 · J. Gelhardt
We make Fulham a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 58% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 43% | 58% | −15 |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | +3 |
| Hull City win | 30% | 19% | +11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 34% | −7 |
| Fulham or draw | 70% | 81% | −11 |
| Fulham clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Hull City clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug
FULHAM
HULL CITY
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | −3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | −3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | −3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | −6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | −3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | −5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | −6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | −6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | −6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | −4 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Manchester City
Arsenal
Brighton
Brentford
Everton
Chelsea
Leeds
Liverpool
Ipswich
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Manchester United
Coventry
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Bournemouth
Tottenham