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Model 1.2

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Fulham v Hull City

Fulham
1–0Full time
Hull City

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Craven Cottage

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Fulham 1–0 Hull City FULHAM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Fulham win43%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.489
The market’s Brier score0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fulham win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Fulham 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fulham v Hull City
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Fulham 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
  5. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Hull City
  6. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Josh King · Fulham
  7. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Regan Slater · Hull City
  8. 34′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–8
  9. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Fulham 1–0 Hull City
  10. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
  11. 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
  12. 35′Alex Iwobi scores for Fulham on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
  13. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Fulham 1–0 Hull City
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Fulham 1–0 Hull City
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hull City · On: Tim Iroegbunam · Off: Lucas Herrington
  17. 47′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  18. 64′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Robinio Vaz · Off: Matt Crooks
  20. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Joe Gelhardt · Off: Sorba Thomas
  21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hull City · On: Ryan Giles · Off: Brooke Norton-Cuffy
  22. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  23. 74′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hull City · On: Hidemasa Morita · Off: Regan Slater
  25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fulham · On: Ryan Sessegnon · Off: Josh King
  26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fulham · On: Tom Cairney · Off: Oscar Bobb
  27. 80′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  28. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Fulham win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  29. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sander Berge · Fulham
  30. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fulham · On: Cesar Palacios Perez · Off: Gonzalo García
  31. 87′We said Fulham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  32. 95′Fulham are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  33. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham
  34. FTFULL TIME Fulham 1–0 Hull City
  35. FTFulham 1–0 Hull City · Fulham win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fulham are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fulham 43%, draw 27%, Hull City 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Fulham v Hull CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fulham win43%
Draw27%
Hull City win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCraven Cottage

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Line-ups

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Hull City

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fulham

Hull City

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · the English Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Hull City6+29
20Fulham6−42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fulham

4-2-3-1

1 B. Leno

21 T. Castagne

22 D. Affengruber

3 C. Bassey

33 A. Robinson

16 S. Berge

19 S. Charles

14 O. Bobb

24 J. King

17 A. Iwobi

7 G. Garcia

Coach · Alvaro Arbeloa

Substitutes

23 · B. Lecomte

2 · K. Tete

5 · J. Andersen

10 · T. Cairney

30 · R. Sessegnon

20 · Manuel Angel

8 · C. Palacios

11 · Kevin

9 · Rodrigo Muniz

Hull City

5-4-1

19 K. Tzolakis

2 L. Coyle

6 S. Ajayi

15 J. Egan

22 L. Herrington

18 B. Norton-Cuffy

10 M. Belloumi

25 M. Crooks

27 R. Slater

7 S. Thomas

9 O. McBurnie

Coach · Sergej Jakirovic

Substitutes

12 · D. Phillips

17 · P. McNair

3 · R. Giles

5 · H. Morita

21 · E. Stroud

42 · T. Iroegbunam

14 · J. Hjerto-Dahl

47 · R. Vaz

11 · J. Gelhardt

Our number · fulham winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market58%
Us43%
Market58%

We make Fulham a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fulham v Hull City1.46 – 1.18
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 AugW0 D2 L4 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 2 v 920 v 8
The market · Fulham win58% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 03:5817 OCT 14:00
Our probability · Fulham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fulham win43%58%−15
Draw27%24%+3
Hull City win30%19%+11
Over 2.5 goals49%54%−5
Both teams to score53%54%−1
Over 1.5 goals74%77%−3
Over 3.5 goals27%34%−7
Fulham or draw70%81%−11
Fulham clean sheet31%––
Hull City clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.2 7.9 5.0 2.0 1 9.9 12.7 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.1 2.0 3 3.7 4.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fulham down, Hull City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored0 of 3
Last meetingsHUL 0–2 FUL · HUL 0–1 FUL · FUL 2–0 HUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

FULHAM

LLLDDL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

HULL CITY

WWDDLD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Manchester City6+1118
2Arsenal6+515
3Brighton6+1313
4Brentford6+610
5Everton6+310
6Chelsea6+210
7Leeds6+39
8Hull City6+29
9Liverpool609
10Ipswich6−39
11Newcastle6−38
12Crystal Palace6−37
13Manchester United606
14Coventry6−66
15Nottingham Forest6−35
16Aston Villa6−55
17Sunderland6−64
18Bournemouth6−63
19Tottenham6−63
20Fulham6−42

The competition's standings before kick-off.