Everton v Chelsea prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Everton 0–2 Chelsea CHELSEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelsea win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.587

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chelsea was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Everton v Chelsea
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Harrison Armstrong · Everton
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Pedro Neto · Chelsea
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Josh Acheampong · Chelsea
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' James Tarkowski · Everton
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Morgan Rogers · Chelsea
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Chelsea win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Everton 0–0 Chelsea
45′SECOND HALF Everton 0–0 Chelsea
47′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Everton 0–1 Chelsea
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Chelsea win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Chelsea win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
48′Chelsea ahead on 46′ through Pedro Neto. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Everton · On: Tyrique George · Off: Ainsley Maitland-Niles
58′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Chelsea win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Cole Palmer · Chelsea
69′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
76′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chelsea · On: Mike Penders · Off: Emiliano Martínez
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Chelsea win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Everton · On: Christian Nørgaard · Off: Harrison Armstrong
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Everton · On: Brennan Johnson · Off: Jack Grealish
88′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Christian Nørgaard · Everton
91′We published Chelsea at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Everton 0–2 Chelsea
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Chelsea win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′Pedro Neto scores for Chelsea on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Chelsea · On: Danny Welbeck · Off: João Pedro
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Chelsea · On: Marco Palestra · Off: Jorrel Hato
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Chelsea · On: Romeo Lavia · Off: Moises Caicedo
102′SUBSTITUTION · 90+12' Chelsea · On: Geovany Quenda · Off: Pedro Neto
FTFULL TIME Everton 0–2 Chelsea
FTEverton 0–2 Chelsea · Chelsea win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chelsea just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Everton 35%, draw 27%, Chelsea 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Everton v ChelseaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Everton win35%

Draw27%

Chelsea win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueHill Dickinson Stadium

RefereePaul Tierney

Line-ups

Everton

4-2-3-1

Chelsea

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Everton

Chelsea

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Chelsea XI vs Everton: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 17 Oct 11:26 · Chelsea, Everton What kit are Chelsea wearing against Everton? The story behind retro shirt inspired by cult classicEvening Standard · 17 Oct 11:08 · Chelsea, Everton Everton v Chelsea: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 17 Oct 11:00 · Everton, Chelsea

Chelsea XI vs Everton: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 17 Oct 08:22 · Chelsea, Everton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Everton

4-2-3-1

1 J. Pickford

2 A. Maitland-Niles

6 J. Tarkowski

4 J. Branthwaite

16 V. Mykolenko

45 H. Armstrong

37 J. Garner

34 M. Rohl

8 K. Dewsbury-Hall

10 J. Grealish

11 T. Barry

Coach · Leighton Baines

Substitutes

12 · M. Travers

15 · J. O'Brien

24 · C. Alcaraz

23 · C. Norgaard

30 · H. Hackney

22 · B. Johnson

20 · T. Dibling

19 · T. George

58 · B. Graham

Chelsea

4-2-3-1

1 E. Martinez

34 J. Acheampong

5 M. Lacroix

6 L. Colwill

21 J. Hato

25 M. Caicedo

14 J. Henderson

7 P. Neto

10 C. Palmer

17 M. Rogers

9 Joao Pedro

Coach · Xabi Alonso

Substitutes

39 · M. Penders

3 · W. Fofana

2 · M. Palestra

32 · M. Nicoll-Jazuli

45 · R. Lavia

4 · V. Barco

18 · D. Welbeck

41 · Estêvão

23 · G. Quenda

Our number · chelsea winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Chelsea a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Everton v Chelsea~~1.31 – 1.36

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~5 v 6

~~The market · Chelsea win~~44% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelsea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Everton win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Chelsea win	38%	44%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Everton or draw	62%	56%	+6
Everton clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chelsea clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 8.9 6.4 2.9 1 8.5 12.8 8.2 3.8 2 5.9 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Everton down, Chelsea across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,960 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Everton at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chelsea away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Everton, 1.36 for Chelsea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EVE 3–0 CHE · CHE 2–0 EVE · CHE 1–0 EVE · EVE 0–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

EVERTON

WDDDWD2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

CHELSEA

WWLDLW3–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10
7	Leeds	6	+3	9
8	Hull City	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	−3	9
11	Newcastle	6	−3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
13	Manchester United	6	0	6
14	Coventry	6	−6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
17	Sunderland	6	−6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
19	Tottenham	6	−6	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2