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Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace

3–1Full time

Nottingham Forest

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT · Selhurst Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest CRYSTAL PALACE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crystal Palace win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.657

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crystal Palace win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Crystal Palace 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
3′Nottingham Forest ahead on 3′ through Dan Ndoye. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
6′We said Crystal Palace at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–61
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 40% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Crystal Palace win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Nottingham Forest win 33%)
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Nottingham Forest win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Crystal Palace win 17%)
9′Nottingham Forest ahead on 3′ through Dan Ndoye. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–61
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Nottingham Forest win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Crystal Palace win 17%)
11′We said Crystal Palace at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–61
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace
22′We said Crystal Palace at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
24′We said Crystal Palace at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Crystal Palace 0–1 Nottingham Forest · Daichi Kamada
42′Daichi Kamada scores for Crystal Palace on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–39–28
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest · Daichi Kamada
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nottingham Forest win 28%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Nottingham Forest win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
43′Daichi Kamada scores for Crystal Palace on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–40–28
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nottingham Forest win 28%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Crystal Palace win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Nottingham Forest win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
44′Nottingham Forest have had 13.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 32–40–28
45′Little has changed for our model: Crystal Palace 39% before kick-off, 32% now. 1–1 · 32–41–27
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Crystal Palace win 32%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Crystal Palace 2–1 Nottingham Forest · Daichi Kamada
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Crystal Palace 2–1 Nottingham Forest · Jefferson Lerma
45′HALF-TIME Crystal Palace 2–1 Nottingham Forest
46′SECOND HALF Crystal Palace 2–1 Nottingham Forest
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Crystal Palace 2–1 Nottingham Forest · Yeremy Pino
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest · Yeremy Pino
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Yeremy Pino · Crystal Palace
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Nottingham Forest · On: Ibrahim Sangaré · Off: Xaver Schlager Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nottingham Forest · On: Callum Hudson-Odoi · Off: Dan Ndoye Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nottingham Forest · On: Chris Wood · Off: Liam Delap Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Crystal Palace · On: Honest Ahanor · Off: Jefferson Lerma Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ola Aina · Nottingham Forest
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Crystal Palace · On: Ismaila Sarr · Off: Yeremy Pino Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Crystal Palace · On: Eddie Nketiah · Off: Jörgen Strand Larsen Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nottingham Forest · On: Arnaud Kalimuendo · Off: Ola Aina Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Crystal Palace · On: Dwight McNeil · Off: Daichi Kamada Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Murillo Santiago · Nottingham Forest
FTFULL TIME Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest
FTCrystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest · Crystal Palace win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Crystal Palace win39%

Draw28%

Nottingham Forest win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueSelhurst Park

RefereePeter Bankes

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Crystal Palace

Nottingham Forest

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest team news LIVE!Sky Sports · 44 min ago · Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest

Southampton v Portsmouth, Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest, Hull v Everton: football – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Southampton, Portsmouth, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Everton

What reception Oliver Glasner can expect on emotional Crystal Palace returnEvening Standard · 3 hours ago · Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest

How rich Derby County, Coventry, Leicester City and Nottingham Forest’s owners really areFootball League World · 5 hours ago · Derby, Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham Forest

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

44 W. Benitez

8 J. Lerma

26 C. Richards

6 J. Canvot

25 A. Khalaili

20 A. Wharton

23 Q. Timber

3 T. Mitchell

18 D. Kamada

10 Y. Pino

22 J. Larsen

Coach · Pierre Sage

Substitutes

31 · R. Matthews

21 · H. Ahanor

30 · O. Mingueza

19 · W. Hughes

28 · C. Doucoure

11 · D. McNeil

7 · I. Sarr

9 · E. Nketiah

29 · E. Guessand

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

26 M. Sels

34 O. Aina

2 O. Diomande

5 Murillo

27 D. Munoz

21 X. Schlager

24 J. McAtee

3 N. Williams

10 M. Gibbs-White

14 D. Ndoye

19 L. Delap

Coach · Oliver Glasner

Substitutes

12 · John Victor

25 · L. Netz

23 · Cunha

6 · I. Sangare

22 · R. Yates

7 · C. Hudson-Odoi

8 · N. Dominguez

9 · C. Wood

15 · A. Kalimuendo

Our number · crystal palace winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Crystal Palace a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · crystal palace win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crystal Palace win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Nottingham Forest win	33%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Crystal Palace or draw	67%	63%	+5
Crystal Palace clean sheet	31%	–	–
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.0 9.0 5.7 2.3 1 10.1 13.2 7.4 3.0 2 7.1 8.3 4.9 3 3.2 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crystal Palace down, Nottingham Forest across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,956 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crystal Palace at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nottingham Forest away: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Crystal Palace, 1.19 for Nottingham Forest. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NOT 1–1 CRY · CRY 1–1 NOT · CRY 1–1 NOT · NOT 1–0 CRY

Form · last six in Premier League

CRYSTAL PALACE

LLLWLD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

DLDDWL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Chelsea	6	+2	10
6	Leeds	6	+3	9
7	Liverpool	5	+3	9
8	Everton	5	+3	9
9	Ipswich	6	−3	9
10	Hull City	5	+2	8
11	Newcastle	5	0	8
12	Manchester United	6	0	6
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Sunderland	6	−6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
18	Tottenham	6	−6	3
19	Coventry	5	−9	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2