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Coventry v Newcastle

Coventry

4–1Full time

Newcastle

Premier League · MON 12 OCT · Coventry Building Society Arena

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Coventry 4–1 Newcastle NEWCASTLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle win~~48%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newcastle was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 27–24–49
5′Much as we predicted: Newcastle was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
6′6′ and it is 1–0: Jack Rudoni on the scoresheet for Coventry. 1–0 · 52–23–25
8′6′ and it is 1–0: Jack Rudoni on the scoresheet for Coventry. 1–0 · 52–23–25
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Newcastle win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Coventry win 27%)
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Newcastle win 25%)
9′We said Newcastle at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–23–24
19′We said Newcastle at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 54–24–22
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Newcastle win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Coventry win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle win 22%)
45′SECOND HALF Coventry 1–0 Newcastle
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Coventry 2–0 Newcastle · Jack Rudoni
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Coventry 2–0 Newcastle · Sidiki Cherif
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Newcastle · On: Amar Dedić · Off: Lewis Miley
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Newcastle · On: Bazoumana Touré · Off: Jacob Murphy
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Newcastle · On: Joelinton · Off: Joe Willock
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Coventry · On: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Off: Ephron Mason-Clark
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Milan van Ewijk · Coventry
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Coventry 2–1 Newcastle · Sidiki Cherif
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Coventry 2–1 Newcastle · Sven Botman
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Coventry · On: Frank Onyeka · Off: Caleb Yirenkyi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Coventry · On: Ellis Simms · Off: Sidiki Cherif
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Newcastle · On: William Osula · Off: Yoane Wissa
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Coventry 3–1 Newcastle · Sven Botman
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Coventry 3–1 Newcastle · Ellis Simms
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Joelinton · Newcastle
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Coventry · On: Victor Torp · Off: Jack Rudoni
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Coventry · On: Stephen Mfuni · Off: Matt Grimes
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Coventry 3–1 Newcastle · Stephen Mfuni
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Coventry 4–1 Newcastle · Ellis Simms
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Coventry 4–1 Newcastle · Stephen Mfuni
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Newcastle · On: Dan Burn · Off: Bazoumana Touré
FTFULL TIME Coventry 4–1 Newcastle
FTCoventry 4–1 Newcastle · Newcastle win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Coventry win27%

Draw25%

Newcastle win48%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueCoventry Building Society Arena

RefereeJohn Brooks

Line-ups

Coventry

4-2-3-1

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coventry

Newcastle

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Newcastle	5	0	8
19	Coventry	5	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Gonzalez starts for Newcastle at Coventry as duo return from injury LIVE!Sky Sports · 16 min ago · Newcastle, Coventry

Coventry City v Newcastle United: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Coventry, Newcastle

Newcastle latest: Joelinton praises 'positive' start after summer salesSky Sports · 3 hours ago · Newcastle

Frank Lampard hailed as 'perfect' by boyhood Chelsea fan now shining for Coventry CityMirror Football · 8 hours ago · Chelsea, Coventry

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Coventry

4-2-3-1

19 C. Rushworth

27 M. van Ewijk

4 B. Thomas

2 E. Pinnock

3 J. Dasilva

8 C. Yirenkyi

6 M. Grimes

23 B. Thomas-Asante

5 J. Rudoni

10 E. Mason-Clark

49 S. Cherif

Coach · Frank Lampard

Substitutes

25 · D. Bentley

12 · S. Mfuni

29 · V. Torp

22 · J. Latibeaudiere

16 · F. Onyeka

7 · T. Sakamoto

38 · G. Hamer

9 · E. Simms

34 · Y. Gboho

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

21 L. Hornicek

67 L. Miley

12 M. Thiaw

4 S. Botman

3 L. Hall

6 Nico

28 J. Willock

23 J. Murphy

9 Y. Wissa

11 H. Barnes

20 M. Fernandez-Pardo

Coach · Matthias Jaissle

Substitutes

1 · N. Pope

33 · D. Burn

5 · F. Schar

37 · A. Dedic

8 · A. Bamba

17 · B. Toure

14 · S. Steur

7 · Joelinton

10 · W. Osula

Our number · newcastle winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make Newcastle a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · newcastle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coventry win	27%	28%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Newcastle win	48%	45%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Coventry or draw	52%	55%	−3
Coventry clean sheet	19%	–	–
Newcastle clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 8.7 7.8 4.5 2.0 1 6.1 11.5 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 4.1 6.6 5.5 3.1 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coventry down, Newcastle across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,959 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Coventry at home: 0.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 2). Newcastle away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Coventry, 1.71 for Newcastle. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Premier League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Premier League

COVENTRY

LLLLW0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–0

NEWCASTLE

LDWDLW0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10
7	Leeds	6	+3	9
8	Hull City	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	−3	9
11	Newcastle	5	0	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
13	Manchester United	6	0	6
14	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
15	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
16	Sunderland	6	−6	4
17	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
18	Tottenham	6	−6	3
19	Coventry	5	−9	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2