Chelsea v Tottenham prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham CHELSEA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelsea win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.931

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea win at 54%.
0′KICK-OFF Chelsea v Tottenham
1′Little has changed for our model: Chelsea 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Chelsea win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Chelsea 0–0 Tottenham
45′SECOND HALF Chelsea 0–0 Tottenham
48′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–36–22
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Tottenham · On: Conor Gallagher · Off: James Maddison
54′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–40–21
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Chelsea win 40%)
63′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Chelsea win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Chelsea · On: Marco Palestra · Off: Jorrel Hato
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tottenham · On: Dominic Solanke · Off: Omar Marmoush
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tottenham · On: Pedro Porro · Off: Andrew Robertson
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Conor Gallagher · Tottenham
70′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Micky van de Ven · Tottenham
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Cole Palmer · Chelsea
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Mateus Fernandes · Tottenham
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Chelsea · On: Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves · Off: Geovany Quenda
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Roberto De Zerbi · Tottenham
75′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Chelsea win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
77′We said Chelsea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–18–79
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Chelsea 0–1 Tottenham
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Chelsea win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Tottenham win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 66%)
79′Tottenham ahead on 77′ through an own goal by Mike Penders. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–17–81
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Pedro Neto · Chelsea
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Chelsea
82′Chelsea are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 1–13–85
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham
88′Mathys Tel scores for Tottenham on 87′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chelsea · On: Danny Welbeck · Off: Pedro Neto
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tottenham · On: Ben Davies · Off: Mathys Tel
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tottenham · On: Dejan Kulusevski · Off: Mohammed Kudus
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Morgan Rogers · Chelsea
FTFULL TIME Chelsea 0–2 Tottenham
FTChelsea 0–2 Tottenham · Chelsea win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelsea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelsea 54%, draw 22%, Tottenham 23%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chelsea v TottenhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chelsea win54%

Draw22%

Tottenham win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStamford Bridge

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1

Tottenham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelsea

Tottenham

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · the English Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
16	Tottenham	7	−4	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Joao Pedro absent for Chelsea vs Tottenham LIVE!Sky Sports · 24 Oct 17:00 · Chelsea, Tottenham

Chelsea hit with huge injury blow as Joao Pedro misses Tottenham clashEvening Standard · 24 Oct 16:22 · Chelsea, Tottenham

Chelsea XI vs Tottenham: No Joao Pedro - starting lineup, confirmed team news and injury latestEvening Standard · 24 Oct 16:20 · Chelsea, Tottenham

Tottenham XI vs Chelsea: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 24 Oct 16:20 · Tottenham, Chelsea

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1

39 M. Penders

34 Joshua Kofi Acheampong

5 M. Lacroix

6 L. Colwill

7 Pedro Neto

25 M. Caicedo

14 J. Henderson

21 J. Hato

10 C. Palmer

23 Geovany Tcherno Quenda

17 M. Rogers

Coach · Xabi Alonso

Substitutes

28 · T. Sharman-Lowe

27 · M. Gusto

2 · M. Palestra

4 · V. Barco

45 · R. Lavia

32 · M. Nicoll-Jazuli

41 · Estêvão

18 · D. Welbeck

3 · W. Fofana

Tottenham

4-2-3-1

31 A. Kinský

14 A. Gray

6 J. van Hecke

37 M. van de Ven

3 A. Robertson

18 Mateus Fernandes

16 S. Tonali

20 M. Kudus

10 J. Maddison

11 M. Tel

22 Omar Marmoush

Coach · R. De Zerbi

Substitutes

19 · D. Solanke

68 · L. Williams-Barnett

52 · Callum Latif Olusesi

21 · D. Kulusevski

8 · C. Gallagher

33 · B. Davies

23 · Pedro Porro

5 · M. Senesi

39 · M. Dúbravka

Our number · chelsea winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Chelsea a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chelsea v Tottenham~~2.00 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~4 v 16

~~The market · Chelsea win~~50% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelsea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelsea win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Tottenham win	23%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Chelsea or draw	77%	75%	+2
Chelsea clean sheet	29%	–	–
Tottenham clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.5 4.5 3.1 1 7.4 10.1 6.0 2.5 2 7.8 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.2 6.3 3.9 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelsea down, Tottenham across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,971 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelsea at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tottenham away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Chelsea, 1.25 for Tottenham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–1 TOT · TOT 0–1 CHE · CHE 1–0 TOT · TOT 3–4 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

CHELSEA

WLDLWW4–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 5–1 · 2–0

TOTTENHAM

LDDLDW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	8	+11	21
2	Arsenal	7	+6	18
3	Brighton	7	+18	16
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	−3	11
7	Brentford	7	+5	10
8	Leeds	7	+3	10
9	Everton	7	+1	10
10	Ipswich	8	−4	10
11	Hull City	7	+1	9
12	Newcastle	7	−4	8
13	Manchester United	7	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	−8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	−4	6
16	Tottenham	7	−4	6
17	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6
18	Coventry	7	−8	6
19	Fulham	7	−3	5
20	Sunderland	7	−8	4