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Chelsea v Manchester United

Chelsea

12:30Upcoming

Manchester United

Premier League · SAT 31 OCT · Stamford Bridge

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChelseaDrawManchester United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Chelsea 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelsea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelsea 45%, draw 24%, Manchester United 31%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Chelsea v Manchester UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chelsea win45%

Draw24%

Manchester United win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStamford Bridge

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelsea

Manchester United

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chelsea	8	+2	13
15	Manchester United	7	0	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Liverpool or Manchester United? The huge Chelsea game Cole Palmer will miss confirmedEvening Standard · 24 Oct 23:51 · Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal get Kroupi boost; Man Utd in Carrick sack decision; Chelsea, Liverpool latestEvening Standard · 24 Oct 09:01 · Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool

Jadon Sancho given crushing reality check with contract offer after Man Utd and Chelsea flopsMirror Football · 23 Oct 21:34 · Manchester United, Chelsea

Transfer news LIVE: Shock triple Arsenal move; Scott to Chelsea twist; Man Utd shortlist; Liverpool latestEvening Standard · 23 Oct 08:07 · Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelsea winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Chelsea a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chelsea v Manchester United~~1.72 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~4 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelsea win	45%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Manchester United win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Chelsea or draw	69%	–	–
Chelsea clean sheet	25%	–	–
Manchester United clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 5.8 4.4 2.1 1 7.2 11.0 7.3 3.5 2 6.5 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 3.7 5.1 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelsea down, Manchester United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,975 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelsea at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester United away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Chelsea, 1.40 for Manchester United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–1 MAN · MAN 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–0 MAN · MAN 1–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

CHELSEA

LDLWWL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

MANCHESTER UNITED

WDLDDD5–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	8	+11	21
2	Arsenal	8	+8	21
3	Brighton	7	+18	16
4	Chelsea	8	+2	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	−3	11
7	Brentford	7	+5	10
8	Leeds	7	+3	10
9	Everton	8	−1	10
10	Ipswich	8	−4	10
11	Hull City	7	+1	9
12	Tottenham	8	−2	9
13	Fulham	8	−2	8
14	Newcastle	7	−4	8
15	Manchester United	7	0	7
16	Crystal Palace	7	−8	7
17	Bournemouth	7	−4	6
18	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6
19	Coventry	8	−9	6
20	Sunderland	7	−8	4