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Chelsea v Bournemouth

Chelsea

5–1Full time

Bournemouth

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Stamford Bridge

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth CHELSEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelsea win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea win at 46%.
2′3′ and it is 2–0: Antonio Silva on the scoresheet for Chelsea. 2–0 · 87–8–4
2′KICK-OFF Chelsea v Bournemouth
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Chelsea win: 46% at kick-off, 87% now
10′We said Chelsea at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth
25′We said Chelsea at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth
45′HALF-TIME Chelsea 2–0 Bournemouth
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bournemouth · On: Ben Gannon-Doak · Off: David Brooks Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Chelsea 2–0 Bournemouth
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth · João Pedro (assist Pedro Neto)
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth · Francisco Evanilson
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Chelsea 3–1 Bournemouth · Francisco Evanilson
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Tyler Adams · Bournemouth
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Chelsea 3–1 Bournemouth · João Pedro
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Chelsea 4–1 Bournemouth · João Pedro
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Ryan Christie · Bournemouth
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth · João Pedro
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth · Jordan Henderson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Chelsea · On: Romeo Lavia · Off: Moises Caicedo Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Chelsea · On: Marco Palestra · Off: João Pedro Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bournemouth · On: Lewis Cook · Off: Ryan Christie Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bournemouth · On: Álvaro Rodríguez · Off: Marcus Tavernier Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bournemouth · On: Juanlu Sánchez · Off: Adam Smith Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chelsea · On: Danny Welbeck · Off: Pedro Neto Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Chelsea · On: Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves · Off: Morgan Rogers Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bournemouth · On: Julio Soler · Off: Adrien Truffert Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chelsea · On: Malo Gusto · Off: Cole Palmer Corrected
FTFULL TIME Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth
FTChelsea 5–1 Bournemouth · Chelsea win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chelsea win46%

Draw24%

Bournemouth win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bayern Munich set their sights on FC Barcelona defender Jules KoundéGet French Football News · 56 min ago · Bayern München, Barcelona, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City Why isn't Reece James playing for Chelsea today? Xabi Alonso reveals injury setbackEvening Standard · 59 min ago · Chelsea, Bournemouth Chelsea vs Bournemouth team news LIVE!Sky Sports · 1 hour ago · Chelsea, Bournemouth

Chelsea XI vs Bournemouth: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Chelsea, Bournemouth

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stamford Bridge

Referee · Samuel Barrott

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1

1 E. Martinez

34 J. Acheampong

5 M. Lacroix

6 L. Colwill

7 P. Neto

14 J. Henderson

25 M. Caicedo

29 P. Chavarria

10 C. Palmer

17 M. Rogers

9 Joao Pedro

Coach · Xabi Alonso

Substitutes

39 · M. Penders

3 · W. Fofana

27 · M. Gusto

2 · M. Palestra

21 · J. Hato

45 · R. Lavia

18 · D. Welbeck

41 · Estêvão

23 · G. Quenda

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

1 D. Petrovic

15 A. Smith

5 J. Hill

14 A. Silva

3 A. Truffert

12 T. Adams

10 R. Christie

7 D. Brooks

37 Rayan

16 M. Tavernier

9 Evanilson

Coach · Marco Rose

Substitutes

20 · M. Di Gregorio

18 · B. Diakite

24 · J. Sanchez

6 · J. Soler

4 · L. Cook

27 · A. Toth

30 · A. Rodriguez

29 · D. Jebbison

11 · B. Gannon-Doak

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1

1 E. Martinez

34 J. Acheampong

5 M. Lacroix

6 L. Colwill

7 P. Neto

14 J. Henderson

25 M. Caicedo

29 P. Chavarria

10 C. Palmer

17 M. Rogers

9 Joao Pedro

Coach · Xabi Alonso

Substitutes

39 · M. Penders

3 · W. Fofana

27 · M. Gusto

2 · M. Palestra

21 · J. Hato

45 · R. Lavia

18 · D. Welbeck

41 · Estêvão

23 · G. Quenda

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

1 D. Petrovic

15 A. Smith

5 J. Hill

14 A. Silva

3 A. Truffert

12 T. Adams

10 R. Christie

7 D. Brooks

37 Rayan

16 M. Tavernier

9 Evanilson

Coach · Marco Rose

Substitutes

20 · M. Di Gregorio

18 · B. Diakite

24 · J. Sanchez

6 · J. Soler

4 · L. Cook

27 · A. Toth

30 · A. Rodriguez

29 · D. Jebbison

11 · B. Gannon-Doak

Our number · chelsea winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make Chelsea a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chelsea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelsea win	46%	52%	−6
Draw	24%	24%	0
Bournemouth win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Chelsea or draw	71%	77%	−6
Chelsea clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bournemouth clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 5.7 4.2 1 7.6 11.2 7.1 3.2 2 7.0 9.1 6.1 2.7 3 4.1 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelsea down, Bournemouth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,950 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelsea at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bournemouth away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Chelsea, 1.34 for Bournemouth. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–2 BOU · BOU 0–0 CHE · CHE 2–2 BOU · BOU 0–1 CHE

Form · last six in Premier League

CHELSEA

LWWLDL1–2 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

BOURNEMOUTH

DLDDDL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	−2	7
11	Ipswich	5	−4	6
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Sunderland	5	−4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	−5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	−2	3
18	Coventry	5	−9	3
19	Fulham	5	−3	2
20	Tottenham	5	−6	2