Brentford v Nottingham Forest prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BrentfordDrawNottingham Forest

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Brentford 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brentford are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brentford 48%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 26%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Brentford v Nottingham ForestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Brentford win48%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueBrentford Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

14Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 23 Oct · the English Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Brentford	7	+5	10
18	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

'We had to scrap' - O'Neil praises Ipswich resilience after Forest drawBBC Sport · 23 Oct 23:21 · Ipswich, Nottingham Forest

Wasteful Forest held by Ipswich amid VAR controversySky Sports · 23 Oct 23:00 · Nottingham Forest, Ipswich

Brentford latest: Andrews ready for trip to 'very impressive' Hull on SundaySky Sports · 22 Oct 18:01 · Brentford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brentford winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Brentford a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brentford v Nottingham Forest~~1.62 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~7 v 18

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brentford win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Nottingham Forest win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Brentford or draw	74%	–	–
Brentford clean sheet	33%	–	–
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 6.8 4.1 1 9.9 12.1 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.5 5.0 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brentford down, Nottingham Forest across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,975 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brentford at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nottingham Forest away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Brentford, 1.13 for Nottingham Forest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRE 0–2 NOT · NOT 3–1 BRE · NOT 0–2 BRE · BRE 0–2 NOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

BRENTFORD

DDDWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

DWLLLD0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	8	+11	21
2	Arsenal	8	+8	21
3	Brighton	7	+18	16
4	Chelsea	8	+2	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	−3	11
7	Brentford	7	+5	10
8	Leeds	7	+3	10
9	Everton	8	−1	10
10	Ipswich	8	−4	10
11	Hull City	7	+1	9
12	Tottenham	8	−2	9
13	Fulham	8	−2	8
14	Newcastle	7	−4	8
15	Manchester United	7	0	7
16	Crystal Palace	7	−8	7
17	Bournemouth	7	−4	6
18	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6
19	Coventry	8	−9	6
20	Sunderland	7	−8	4