Brentford v Liverpool prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Brentford 1–2 Liverpool LIVERPOOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Liverpool win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Liverpool win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Brentford v Liverpool
2′Much as we predicted: Liverpool was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–25–38
8′Much as we predicted: Liverpool was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Bradley Barcola · Liverpool
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Liverpool · On: Treymaurice Nyoni · Off: Dominik Szoboszlai
43′PENALTY CANCELLED · 41' Liverpool
44′We said Liverpool at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Brentford 1–0 Liverpool
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Liverpool win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Brentford win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Liverpool win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Brentford 1–0 Liverpool
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Liverpool · On: Jeremie Frimpong · Off: Ronald Araujo
45′SECOND HALF Brentford 1–0 Liverpool
46′Keane Lewis-Potter scores for Brentford on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Brentford · On: Kevin Schade · Off: Dango Ouattara
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Brentford · On: Mamadou Sangare · Off: Mathias Jensen
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Igor Thiago · Brentford
49′We said Liverpool at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Liverpool win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jérémy Jacquet · Liverpool
52′🟥 RED CARD · 52' Brentford
53′A red card for Brentford on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 70–22–8
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Liverpool · On: Rio Ngumoha · Off: Jeremie Frimpong
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kevin Schade · Brentford
62′We said Liverpool at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
62′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 25–48–27
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Brentford 1–1 Liverpool
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Liverpool win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Brentford win 25%)
63′62′: Víctor Muñoz on the scoresheet for Liverpool, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–49–26
63′13 shots for Liverpool, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 25–49–26
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Vitaly Janelt · Brentford
66′We said Liverpool at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
71′Liverpool ahead on 70′ through Alexander Isak. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–79
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Brentford 1–2 Liverpool · Alexander Isak
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Liverpool win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Liverpool win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
72′We published Liverpool at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brentford · On: Aaron Hickey · Off: Sepp van den Berg
78′We published Liverpool at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brentford · On: Mikkel Damsgaard · Off: Jaidon Anthony
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brentford · On: El Hadji Malick Diouf · Off: Keane Lewis-Potter
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Liverpool · On: Lewis Koumas · Off: Alexander Isak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Liverpool · On: Joe Gomez · Off: Víctor Muñoz
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Liverpool win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Liverpool at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
89′We published Liverpool at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Brentford
93′Brentford are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Brentford 1–2 Liverpool
FTBrentford 1–2 Liverpool · Liverpool win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Liverpool just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Brentford 36%, draw 25%, Liverpool 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Brentford v LiverpoolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brentford win36%

Draw25%

Liverpool win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGtech Community Stadium

RefereeJohn Brooks

Line-ups

Brentford

4-2-3-1

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brentford

Liverpool

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
9	Liverpool	6	0	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Brentford vs Liverpool LIVE!Sky Sports · 17 Oct 14:00 · Brentford, Liverpool

Is Brentford vs Liverpool on TV today? Live stream and how to follow 3pm clashMirror Football · 17 Oct 11:00 · Brentford, Liverpool

Liverpool XI vs Brentford: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 17 Oct 08:47 · Liverpool, Brentford

Why Brentford vs Liverpool is a 3pm kick-off on Saturday amid Premier League rulingEvening Standard · 17 Oct 07:00 · Brentford, Liverpool

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brentford

4-2-3-1

1 C. Kelleher

33 M. Kayode

4 S. van den Berg

20 K. Ajer

23 K. Lewis-Potter

6 Y. Yarmolyuk

27 V. Janelt

11 D. Ouattara

8 M. Jensen

19 J. Anthony

9 I. Thiago

Coach · Keith Andrews

Substitutes

12 · H. R. Valdimarsson

22 · N. Collins

2 · A. Hickey

25 · M. Diouf

24 · M. Damsgaard

7 · K. Schade

14 · F. Carvalho

18 · M. Sangare

13 · C. Wilson

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

1 Alisson

33 R. Araujo

5 J. Jacquet

4 V. van Dijk

6 M. Kerkez

10 A. Mac Allister

8 D. Szoboszlai

23 V. Munoz

7 F. Wirtz

29 B. Barcola

9 A. Isak

Coach · Andoni Iraola

Substitutes

25 · G. Mamardashvili

21 · K. Tsimikas

2 · J. Gomez

30 · J. Frimpong

3 · W. Endo

42 · T. Nyoni

18 · C. Gakpo

67 · L. Koumas

73 · R. Ngumoha

Our number · liverpool winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Liverpool a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brentford v Liverpool~~1.50 – 1.55

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~4 v 9

~~The market · Liverpool win~~34% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Liverpool win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. The market has gone from 39% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brentford win	36%	40%	−4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Liverpool win	39%	34%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Brentford or draw	61%	66%	−5
Brentford clean sheet	21%	–	–
Liverpool clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.4 6.8 5.7 3.0 1 6.6 11.4 8.4 4.4 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brentford down, Liverpool across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,960 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brentford at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Liverpool away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Brentford, 1.55 for Liverpool. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIV 1–1 BRE · BRE 3–2 LIV · BRE 0–2 LIV · LIV 2–0 BRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

BRENTFORD

WDDDWD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

LIVERPOOL

DDWDWL2–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10
7	Leeds	6	+3	9
8	Hull City	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	−3	9
11	Newcastle	6	−3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
13	Manchester United	6	0	6
14	Coventry	6	−6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
17	Sunderland	6	−6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
19	Tottenham	6	−6	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2