Bournemouth v Sunderland prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland BOURNEMOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bournemouth win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.437

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bournemouth win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bournemouth 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Bournemouth v Sunderland
6′A goal for Bournemouth on 5′. 0–0 · 47–27–26
6′We said Bournemouth at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
6′Bournemouth ahead on 6′ through Marcus Tavernier. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Bournemouth win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
16′We said Bournemouth at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Sunderland
18′Sunderland are down to ten from 17′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–17–9
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Antonio Silva · Bournemouth
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Omar Alderete · Sunderland
45′HALF-TIME Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland
45′SECOND HALF Bournemouth 1–0 Sunderland
49′48′: Francisco Evanilson on the scoresheet for Bournemouth. 1–0 · 78–17–5
49′We said Bournemouth at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bournemouth win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland · Francisco Evanilson
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bournemouth win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Lewis Cook · Bournemouth
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sunderland · On: Habib Diarra · Off: Timur Tutierov Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sunderland · On: Luke O'Nien · Off: Omar Alderete Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bournemouth · On: Justin Kluivert · Off: Lewis Cook Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Chris Rigg · Sunderland
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sunderland · On: Jules Ahoka · Off: Chris Rigg Corrected
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bournemouth win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ryan Christie · Bournemouth
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bournemouth · On: Álvaro Rodríguez · Off: Francisco Evanilson Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bournemouth · On: Amine Adli · Off: Marcus Tavernier Corrected
81′We said Bournemouth at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bournemouth · On: Bafode Diakite · Off: Tyler Adams Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bournemouth · On: Ben Gannon-Doak · Off: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha Corrected
FTFULL TIME Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland
FTBournemouth 2–0 Sunderland · Bournemouth win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bournemouth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bournemouth 48%, draw 26%, Sunderland 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Bournemouth v SunderlandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bournemouth win48%

Draw26%

Sunderland win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueVitality Stadium

RefereeCraig Pawson

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bournemouth

Sunderland

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Sunderland	6	−6	4
19	Bournemouth	6	−6	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Middlesbrough & Sunderland cult hero went from Premier League football to Sunday LeagueFootball League World · 17 Oct 19:30 · Middlesbrough, Sunderland

Bournemouth reveal new Alex Scott update after transfer U-turn to alert Chelsea and LiverpoolEvening Standard · 16 Oct 22:51 · Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool Minus 17 to European dreams as Bournemouth fairytale continuesBBC Sport · 15 Oct 23:42 · Bournemouth

Noah Sadiki stunner earns Sunderland dramatic late win against TorreenseThe Guardian · 15 Oct 20:14 · Sunderland, Torreense

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

1 D. Petrovic

15 A. Smith

5 J. Hill

14 A. Silva

3 A. Truffert

12 T. Adams

10 R. Christie

37 Rayan

4 L. Cook

16 M. Tavernier

9 Evanilson

Coach · Marco Rose

Substitutes

20 · M. Di Gregorio

18 · B. Diakite

24 · J. Sanchez

6 · J. Soler

21 · A. Adli

30 · A. Rodriguez

7 · D. Brooks

19 · J. Kluivert

11 · B. Gannon-Doak

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

22 R. Roefs

20 N. Mukiele

4 K. Danso

15 O. Alderete

17 R. Mandava

34 G. Xhaka

27 N. Sadiki

32 T. Hume

11 C. Rigg

28 E. Le Fee

57 T. Tuterov

Coach · Regis Le Bris

Substitutes

31 · M. Ellborg

13 · L. O'Nien

6 · D. Methalie

19 · H. Diarra

29 · J. Ahoka

10 · N. Angulo

7 · C. Talbi

39 · M. Fofana

50 · J. Angulo

Our number · bournemouth winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Bournemouth a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bournemouth v Sunderland~~1.61 – 1.10

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~19 v 18

~~The market · Bournemouth win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bournemouth win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bournemouth win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Sunderland win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	70%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	26%	+3
Bournemouth or draw	74%	75%	−1
Bournemouth clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sunderland clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 6.9 4.1 1 10.2 12.1 6.4 2.4 2 8.5 9.3 5.1 3 4.6 5.0 2.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bournemouth down, Sunderland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bournemouth at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sunderland away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Bournemouth, 1.10 for Sunderland. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOU 1–1 SUN · SUN 3–2 BOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

BOURNEMOUTH

LDDDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–5

SUNDERLAND

LWDLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	7	+12	21
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	+5	10
7	Everton	7	+1	10
8	Leeds	6	+3	9
9	Hull City	7	+1	9
10	Ipswich	7	−4	9
11	Newcastle	7	−4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	−4	8
13	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
14	Manchester United	6	0	6
15	Coventry	6	−6	6
16	Fulham	7	−3	5
17	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
18	Sunderland	6	−6	4
19	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
20	Tottenham	6	−6	3