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Bournemouth v Leeds
BournemouthLeedsPremier League · SAT 31 OCT · Vitality Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bournemouth are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bournemouth 46%, draw 25%, Leeds 28%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off
Bournemouth win46%Leeds win28%Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 9
VenueVitality Stadium
Match timeline
All events
BournemouthMINLeedsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bournemouth
Leeds
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
Milan condemn ‘unacceptable’ racist abuse of Maignan after Bournemouth red cardFootball Italia · · AC Milan, Bournemouth INTERVIEW | Charlie Cresswell describes decision to leave Leeds United as ‘biggest’ of his careerGet French Football News · · Leeds Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bournemouth a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Leeds win | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Bournemouth or draw | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Leeds clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug
BOURNEMOUTH
LEEDS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | −3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | −1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | −2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Newcastle | 7 | −4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | −8 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | −4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 8 | −9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.