Aston Villa v Manchester City

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 51%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Manchester City was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
3. 1′KICK-OFF Aston Villa v Manchester City
4. 7′6′: Nicolas Jackson on the scoresheet for Aston Villa, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 50–23–27
5. 7′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 50–23–27
6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City · Nicolas Jackson
7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Manchester City win: 51% at kick-off, 27% now
8. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Aston Villa win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Manchester City win 50%)
9. 16′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–24–24
10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Manchester City win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 55–25–20
12. 32′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–25–19
13. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Marc Guehi · Manchester City
14. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Rayan Cherki · Manchester City
15. 45′HALF-TIME Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
16. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester City · On: Rico Lewis · Off: Marc Guehi
17. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester City · On: Phil Foden · Off: Rayan Cherki
18. 46′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
19. 46′SECOND HALF Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
20. 53′Manchester City level it on 52′ through Erling Haaland. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–41–37
21. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Aston Villa 1–1 Manchester City · Erling Haaland
22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Manchester City win: 51% at kick-off, 37% now
23. 54′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 22–42–37
24. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Aston Villa win 63%)
25. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Johan Manzambi · Aston Villa
26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Matty Cash · Aston Villa
27. 59′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 20–45–34
28. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Aston Villa · On: Ibrahim Mbaye · Off: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
29. 61′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 67–24–8
30. 61′Nicolas Jackson scores for Aston Villa on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–24–8
31. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
32. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Manchester City win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
33. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Aston Villa win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 46%)
34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Aston Villa · On: Emiliano Buendía · Off: Johan Manzambi
35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Aston Villa · On: Ross Barkley · Off: John McGinn
36. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Manchester City · On: Ryan McAidoo · Off: Iliman Ndiaye
37. 72′We said Manchester City at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
38. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Elliot Anderson · Manchester City
39. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ryan McAidoo · Manchester City
40. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Manchester City win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
41. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Aston Villa · On: Brian Madjo · Off: Nicolas Jackson
42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Aston Villa · On: Leon Goretzka · Off: João Gomes
43. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Brian Madjo · Aston Villa
44. 93′Manchester City have had 14 attempts to 8 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
45. FTFULL TIME Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
46. FTAston Villa 2–1 Manchester City · Manchester City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.