Aston Villa v Fulham prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aston VillaDrawFulham

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aston Villa 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aston Villa 47%, draw 26%, Fulham 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Aston Villa v FulhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aston Villa win47%

Draw26%

Fulham win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueVilla Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aston Villa

Fulham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aston Villa	8	−3	11
13	Fulham	8	−2	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Jackson scores twice as Aston Villa end Man City's perfect startBBC Sport · 24 Oct 19:59 · Aston Villa, Manchester City

Bobb's late strike secures Fulham win at CoventryBBC Sport · 24 Oct 19:59 · Fulham, Coventry

Moment of magic from Bobb wins it for Fulham at CoventrySky Sports · 24 Oct 17:45 · Fulham, Coventry

Maresca ‘not worried’ by Guéhi’s gaffes as Aston Villa end City’s flawless startThe Guardian · 24 Oct 16:16 · Aston Villa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aston villa winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Aston Villa a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aston Villa v Fulham~~1.57 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~6 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aston Villa win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Fulham win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Aston Villa or draw	73%	–	–
Aston Villa clean sheet	33%	–	–
Fulham clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.5 7.1 4.3 1 10.2 12.3 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.2 5.1 3 4.4 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aston Villa down, Fulham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,975 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aston Villa at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fulham away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Aston Villa, 1.12 for Fulham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FUL 1–0 AST · AST 3–1 FUL · AST 1–0 FUL · FUL 1–3 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

ASTON VILLA

DLWDWW0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

FULHAM

LDDLWW2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	8	+11	21
2	Arsenal	8	+8	21
3	Brighton	7	+18	16
4	Chelsea	8	+2	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Aston Villa	8	−3	11
7	Brentford	7	+5	10
8	Leeds	7	+3	10
9	Everton	8	−1	10
10	Ipswich	8	−4	10
11	Hull City	7	+1	9
12	Tottenham	8	−2	9
13	Fulham	8	−2	8
14	Newcastle	7	−4	8
15	Manchester United	7	0	7
16	Crystal Palace	7	−8	7
17	Bournemouth	7	−4	6
18	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6
19	Coventry	8	−9	6
20	Sunderland	7	−8	4