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Aston Villa v Brentford

Aston Villa

2–2Full time

Brentford

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Villa Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford ASTON VILLA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa win~~41%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aston Villa win at 41%.
3′Much as we predicted: Aston Villa was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
3′KICK-OFF Aston Villa v Brentford
10′Brentford ahead on 10′ through Yehor Yarmoliuk. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–60
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford · Yehor Yarmoliuk
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Aston Villa win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Brentford win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Aston Villa win 19%)
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford · Nicolas Jackson
16′Nicolas Jackson scores for Aston Villa on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–28–33
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Aston Villa win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Aston Villa win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Brentford win 33%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Igor Thiago · Brentford
45′Aston Villa have had 10.0 attempts to 5.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 34–37–29
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Brentford · On: Aaron Hickey · Off: Jannik Schuster Corrected
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa
47′SECOND HALF Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Brentford · On: Mamadou Sangare · Off: Kevin Schade Corrected
57′⚽ GOAL · 10' Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford · Yehor Yarmoliuk
57′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford · Nicolas Jackson
57′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Igor Thiago · Brentford
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aston Villa · On: Aaron Wan-Bissaka · Off: Matteo Ruggeri Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Brentford · On: Aaron Hickey · Off: Jannik Schuster Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa
57′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Brentford · On: Mamadou Sangare · Off: Kevin Schade Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Aston Villa · On: Ibrahim Mbaye · Off: Emiliano Buendía Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Brentford · On: Dango Ouattara · Off: Keane Lewis-Potter Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Brentford · On: Mathias Jensen · Off: Yehor Yarmoliuk Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Matty Cash · Aston Villa
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Vitaly Janelt · Brentford
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford · Nicolas Jackson
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford · John McGinn
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford · John McGinn
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford · John McGinn
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford · Kristoffer Ajer
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Michael Kayode · Brentford
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Brentford · On: Callum Wilson · Off: Jaidon Anthony Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Aston Villa · On: Ross Barkley · Off: João Gomes Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Aston Villa · On: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha · Off: Johan Manzambi Corrected
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Callum Wilson · Brentford
96′🟨 YELLOW · 97' K. Andrews · Brentford
FTFULL TIME Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford
FTAston Villa 2–2 Brentford · Aston Villa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aston Villa win41%

Draw26%

Brentford win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Aston Villa vs Brentford team news LIVE!Sky Sports · 49 min ago · Aston Villa, Brentford

Is Aston Villa vs Brentford on TV? Live stream info and kick-off time for Premier League clashMirror Football · 2 hours ago · Aston Villa, Brentford, SC Villa

Aston Villa latest: Goretzka returns to training but will not feature vs BeesSky Sports · 23 hours ago · Aston Villa

Malen: ‘I didn’t feel important’ at Aston Villa, Gasperini ‘will never lie’Football Italia · 1 day ago · Aston Villa

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Villa Park

Referee · Craig Pawson

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Suzuki

2 M. Cash

3 V. Lindelof

5 T. Mings

13 M. Ruggeri

8 B. Kamara

35 Joao Gomes

7 J. McGinn

10 E. Buendia

44 J. Manzambi

11 N. Jackson

Coach · Unai Emery

Substitutes

40 · M. Bizot

14 · P. Torres

29 · A. Wan-Bissaka

26 · L. Bogarde

6 · R. Barkley

17 · A. Garnacho

47 · Alysson

18 · T. Abraham

19 · I. Mbaye

Brentford

4-2-3-1

1 C. Kelleher

33 M. Kayode

44 J. Schuster

20 K. Ajer

25 M. Diouf

6 Y. Yarmolyuk

27 V. Janelt

19 J. Anthony

23 K. Lewis-Potter

7 K. Schade

9 I. Thiago

Coach · Keith Andrews

Substitutes

12 · H. R. Valdimarsson

48 · B. Fredrick

4 · S. van den Berg

2 · A. Hickey

8 · M. Jensen

14 · F. Carvalho

18 · M. Sangare

13 · C. Wilson

11 · D. Ouattara

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Suzuki

2 M. Cash

3 V. Lindelof

5 T. Mings

13 M. Ruggeri

8 B. Kamara

35 Joao Gomes

7 J. McGinn

10 E. Buendia

44 J. Manzambi

11 N. Jackson

Coach · Unai Emery

Substitutes

40 · M. Bizot

14 · P. Torres

29 · A. Wan-Bissaka

26 · L. Bogarde

6 · R. Barkley

17 · A. Garnacho

47 · Alysson

18 · T. Abraham

19 · I. Mbaye

Brentford

4-2-3-1

1 C. Kelleher

33 M. Kayode

44 J. Schuster

20 K. Ajer

25 M. Diouf

6 Y. Yarmolyuk

27 V. Janelt

19 J. Anthony

23 K. Lewis-Potter

7 K. Schade

9 I. Thiago

Coach · Keith Andrews

Substitutes

12 · H. R. Valdimarsson

48 · B. Fredrick

4 · S. van den Berg

2 · A. Hickey

8 · M. Jensen

14 · F. Carvalho

18 · M. Sangare

13 · C. Wilson

11 · D. Ouattara

Our number · aston villa winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market34%

Us41%

~~Market~~34%

We make Aston Villa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aston villa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aston Villa win	41%	34%	+7
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Brentford win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Aston Villa or draw	67%	62%	+5
Aston Villa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Brentford clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 6.9 5.1 2.4 1 7.8 11.9 7.7 3.6 2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.3 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aston Villa down, Brentford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,950 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aston Villa at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brentford away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Aston Villa, 1.38 for Brentford. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 0–1 BRE · BRE 1–0 AST · BRE 0–1 AST · AST 3–1 BRE

Form · last six in Premier League

ASTON VILLA

WLLDLW2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

BRENTFORD

DWDDDW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	−2	7
11	Ipswich	5	−4	6
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Sunderland	5	−4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	−5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	−2	3
18	Coventry	5	−9	3
19	Fulham	5	−3	2
20	Tottenham	5	−6	2