Arsenal v Leeds

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal win at 65%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–14
3. 1′KICK-OFF Arsenal v Leeds
4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
5. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Ao Tanaka · Leeds
6. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Ethan Ampadu · Leeds
7. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Daniel Farke · Leeds
8. 40′We said Arsenal at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–33–15
9. 45′SECOND HALF Arsenal 0–0 Leeds
10. 47′We said Arsenal at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
11. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
12. 55′55′ and it is 0–1: James Justin on the scoresheet for Leeds. 0–1 · 15–30–56
13. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Arsenal 0–1 Leeds
14. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Arsenal 0–1 Leeds · James Justin
15. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
16. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Leeds win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Arsenal win 15%)
17. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 50–35–14 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
18. 58′We said Arsenal at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–29–58
19. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Tarik Muharemovic · Leeds
20. 61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Arsenal 0–1 Leeds · Riccardo Calafiori
21. 62′Arsenal ahead on 62′ through Riccardo Calafiori. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–49–13
22. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Arsenal 1–1 Leeds · Riccardo Calafiori
23. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 39% now
24. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Leeds win 13%)
25. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arsenal · On: Jurriën Timber · Off: Ben White Corrected
26. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arsenal · On: Viktor Gyökeres · Off: Kai Havertz Corrected
27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arsenal · On: Bruno Guimarães · Off: Myles Lewis-Skelly Corrected
28. 64′We said Arsenal at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–51–12
29. 66′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 35–53–12
30. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
31. 68′We said Arsenal at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–55–11
32. 69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Arsenal 1–1 Leeds · Bruno Guimarães
33. 73′Bruno Guimarães scores for Arsenal on 70′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leeds · On: Harry Wilson · Off: Ao Tanaka Corrected
35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leeds · On: Brenden Aaronson · Off: Noah Okafor Corrected
36. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Arsenal 2–1 Leeds · Bruno Guimarães
37. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 90% now
38. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Arsenal win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
39. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' James Justin · Leeds
40. 79′We said Arsenal at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leeds · On: Lukas Nmecha · Off: James Justin Corrected
42. 81′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
43. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arsenal · On: Piero Hincapié · Off: Riccardo Calafiori Corrected
44. 83′We said Arsenal at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
45. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Arsenal win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
46. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Martin Odegaard · Arsenal
47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Leeds · On: Jean Matteo Bahoya · Off: Gabriel Gudmundsson Corrected
48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Leeds · On: Jaka Bijol · Off: Nico Elvedi Corrected
49. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Arsenal · On: Mikel Merino · Off: Martin Odegaard Corrected
50. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 65% on Arsenal comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
51. 91′We said Arsenal at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
52. FTFULL TIME Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
53. FTArsenal 2–1 Leeds · Arsenal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.