Arsenal v Everton prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Arsenal 2–0 Everton ARSENAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal win~~62%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.217

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.177

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–24–14
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal v Everton
8′A goal for Arsenal on 7′. 0–0 · 60–25–14
9′We said Arsenal at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
9′⚽ GOAL · 7' Arsenal 1–0 Everton · Ezri Konsa
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Arsenal win: 62% at kick-off, 86% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal 1–0 Everton
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton
45′SECOND HALF Arsenal 1–0 Everton
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Mikel Arteta Amatriain · Arsenal
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' James Garner · Everton
68′We said Arsenal at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal · On: Bruno Guimarães · Off: Mikel Merino
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal · On: Kai Havertz · Off: Viktor Gyökeres
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal · On: Riccardo Calafiori · Off: Myles Lewis-Skelly
69′68′: Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães on the scoresheet for Arsenal. 1–0 · 90–9–1
70′We said Arsenal at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 68' Arsenal 2–0 Everton · Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (assist Ben White)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Arsenal win: 62% at kick-off, 99% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Everton · On: Tyler Dibling · Off: Brennan Johnson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Everton · On: Hayden Hackney · Off: Vitaliy Mykolenko
75′We said Arsenal at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' James Tarkowski · Everton
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arsenal · On: Martín Zubimendi · Off: Declan Rice
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arsenal · On: Max Dowman · Off: Eberechi Eze
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' David William Moyes · Everton
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Everton · On: Charly Alcaraz · Off: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
FTFULL TIME Arsenal 2–0 Everton
FTArsenal 2–0 Everton · Arsenal win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal 62%, draw 24%, Everton 14%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal v EvertonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal win62%

Draw24%

Everton win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEmirates Stadium

RefereeTony Harrington

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

Everton

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal

Everton

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arsenal	7	+6	18
8	Everton	7	+1	10

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Arsenal vs Everton LIVE: Premier League match stream, latest team news, lineups, TV, predictionEvening Standard · 24 Oct 12:30 · Arsenal, Everton

Arsenal XI vs Everton: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · 24 Oct 08:17 · Arsenal, Everton Arsenal XI vs Everton: Confirmed team news, predicted lineup, injury latest for Premier LeagueEvening Standard · 23 Oct 15:36 · Arsenal, Everton

Arsenal star spotted in training ahead of Everton clash after Mikel Arteta updateEvening Standard · 23 Oct 12:34 · Arsenal, Everton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

1 David Raya

4 B. White

15 E. Konsa

6 Gabriel Magalhães

49 M. Lewis-Skelly

41 D. Rice

23 Mikel Merino

20 N. Madueke

8 M. Ødegaard

10 E. Eze

14 V. Gyökeres

Coach · Mikel Arteta

Substitutes

39 · Bruno Guimarães

36 · Martín Zubimendi

33 · R. Calafiori

12 · J. Timber

5 · P. Hincapié

3 · Cristhian Mosquera

13 · Kepa

56 · M. Dowman

29 · K. Havertz

Everton

4-2-3-1

1 J. Pickford

34 M. Röhl

15 J. O'Brien

6 J. Tarkowski

16 V. Mykolenko

45 H. Armstrong

37 J. Garner

22 B. Johnson

8 K. Dewsbury-Hall

19 Tyrique George

11 T. Barry

Coach · D. Moyes

Substitutes

58 · B. Graham

12 · M. Travers

31 · T. King

2 · A. Maitland-Niles

5 · M. Keane

20 · T. Dibling

23 · C. Nørgaard

24 · C. Alcaraz

30 · H. Hackney

Our number · arsenal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market66%

Us62%

~~Market~~66%

We make Arsenal a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal v Everton~~1.76 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~2 v 8

~~The market · Arsenal win~~66% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal win	62%	66%	−4
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Everton win	14%	13%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Both teams to score	41%	49%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Arsenal or draw	86%	87%	−1
Arsenal clean sheet	50%	–	–
Everton clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 9.3 5.5 2.1 1 14.7 10.8 3.6 2 13.2 9.0 3.1 3 7.8 5.3 4 3.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal down, Everton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,971 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Everton away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Arsenal, 0.69 for Everton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARS 2–0 EVE · EVE 0–1 ARS · EVE 1–1 ARS · ARS 0–0 EVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ARSENAL

WWWLWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

EVERTON

DDDWDL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	7	+12	21
2	Arsenal	7	+6	18
3	Brighton	7	+18	16
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	+5	10
7	Leeds	7	+3	10
8	Everton	7	+1	10
9	Ipswich	8	−4	10
10	Hull City	7	+1	9
11	Newcastle	7	−4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	−4	8
13	Manchester United	7	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	−8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	−4	6
16	Tottenham	7	−4	6
17	Nottingham Forest	8	−4	6
18	Coventry	7	−8	6
19	Fulham	7	−3	5
20	Sunderland	7	−8	4