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Reading U21 v Norwich City U21

Reading U21

2–3Full time

Norwich City U21

Premier League Cup · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Reading U21 2–3 Norwich City U21 READING U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reading U21 win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reading U21 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Reading U21 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–22–32
1′KICK-OFF Reading U21 v Norwich City U21
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Reading U21 0–1 Norwich City U21
7′A goal for Norwich City U21 on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–21–55
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Reading U21 0–1 Norwich City U21
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Reading U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 24% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Norwich City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Reading U21 win 24%)
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Reading U21 1–1 Norwich City U21
12′8′ and it is 1–1: Reading U21 have scored. 1–1 · 44–24–32
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Reading U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 44% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Reading U21 win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Norwich City U21 win 32%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 38–34–29
45′HALF-TIME Reading U21 1–1 Norwich City U21
46′SECOND HALF Reading U21 1–1 Norwich City U21
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Reading U21 1–2 Norwich City U21
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Reading U21 1–3 Norwich City U21
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Reading U21 2–3 Norwich City U21
FTReading U21 2–3 Norwich City U21 · Reading U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Reading U21 win46%

Draw22%

Norwich City U21 win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reading u21 winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Reading U21 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reading U21 win	46%	36%	+9
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Norwich City U21 win	32%	39%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Both teams to score	66%	67%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Reading U21 or draw	68%	61%	+7
Reading U21 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Norwich City U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 4.9 3.9 2.0 1 6.0 9.5 7.2 3.8 2 5.7 8.7 6.7 3.5 3 3.6 5.5 4.2 2.2 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reading U21 down, Norwich City U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,574 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Reading U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Norwich City U21 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Reading U21, 1.56 for Norwich City U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–1 REA · REA 1–2 NOR · REA 2–1 NOR

Form · last six in Premier League Cup

READING U21

DWLWWD2–2 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

NORWICH CITY U21

WLWDWL4–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bristol City U21	2	+5	6
2	Cardiff City U21	2	+4	6
3	Wolves U21	2	+3	6
4	Charlton Athletic U21	2	+2	6
5	Southampton U21	2	+4	4
6	Huddersfield Town U21	2	+3	4
7	Hull City U21	2	+3	4
8	Swansea City U21	2	+3	4
9	Brentford U21	2	+2	4
10	Brighton U21	2	+2	4
11	Peterborough United U21	1	+4	3
12	Stockport County U21	2	+3	3
13	Norwich City U21	1	+2	3
14	Sheffield United U21	1	+2	3
15	Nottingham Forest U21	1	+2	3
16	Queens Park Rangers U21	2	+1	3
17	Bromley U21	2	+1	3
18	Birmingham City U21	2	+1	3
19	Leicester City U21	2	+1	3
20	Ipswich Town U21	2	0	3
21	West Bromwich Albion U21	2	0	3
22	Preston North End U21	2	0	3
23	Coventry City U21	2	−1	3
24	Burnley U21	2	−1	3
25	Blackburn Rovers U21	2	−2	3
26	AFC Bournemouth U21	2	−2	3
27	Leeds United U21	2	−1	1
28	West Ham United U21	2	−2	1
29	Bolton Wanderers Res.	2	−3	1
30	Stoke City U21	2	−4	1
31	Fleetwood Town U21	2	−2	0
32	Exeter U21	1	−2	0
33	Millwall U21	1	−2	0
34	Wycombe U21	1	−2	0
35	Plymouth U21	2	−3	0
36	Derby County U21	1	−3	0
37	Reading U21	2	−5	0
38	Luton Town U21	2	−6	0
39	Gillingham FC U21	2	−7	0