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West Ham United U21 v Burnley U21

West Ham United U21

3–1Full time

Burnley U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 23 OCT · Rush Green Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

West Ham United U21 3–1 Burnley U21 WEST HAM UNITED U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Ham United U21 win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham United U21 win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: West Ham United U21 was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–21
1′KICK-OFF West Ham United U21 v Burnley U21
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Burnley U21
23′A goal for West Ham United U21 on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–7
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' West Ham United U21 1–0 Burnley U21
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' West Ham United U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 78% now
24′We published West Ham United U21 at 58%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
35′West Ham United U21 score on 35′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
35′We published West Ham United U21 at 58%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' West Ham United U21 2–0 Burnley U21
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' West Ham United U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Burnley U21
45′We published West Ham United U21 at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME West Ham United U21 3–0 Burnley U21
46′SECOND HALF West Ham United U21 3–0 Burnley U21
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Burnley U21 · On: B. Pouani · Off: J. Banel
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Burnley U21 · On: T. Savage · Off: J. Cullen
50′West Ham United U21 find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' West Ham United U21 3–0 Burnley U21
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' West Ham United U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
60′We published West Ham United U21 at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Burnley U21 · On: B. Derbyshire · Off: M. Stanley
63′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Burnley U21 · On: D. Okonkwo · Off: A. Barnes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' West Ham United U21 · On: J. Kerr · Off: J. Robinson
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Burnley U21
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Burnley U21
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' West Ham United U21
78′A goal for Burnley U21 on 78′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' West Ham United U21 3–1 Burnley U21
79′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′Z. Johnson scores for Burnley U21 on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' West Ham United U21
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' R. Hargan · West Ham United U21
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' West Ham United U21 · On: J. Longman · Off: D. Cummings
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' West Ham United U21 · On: R. Morris-Agyemang · Off: P. Fearon
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' West Ham United U21 · On: T. Omotoye · Off: R. Battrum
FTFULL TIME West Ham United U21 3–1 Burnley U21
FTWest Ham United U21 3–1 Burnley U21 · West Ham United U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Ham United U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: West Ham United U21 58%, draw 20%, Burnley U21 21%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on West Ham United U21 v Burnley U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

West Ham United U21 win58%

Draw20%

Burnley U21 win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueRush Green Stadium

RefereeP. Johnson

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

West Ham United U21

Burnley U21

3Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League International Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · west ham united u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make West Ham United U21 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · West Ham United U21 v Burnley U21~~2.19 – 1.25

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~19 v 23

~~The market · West Ham United U21 win~~58% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · West Ham United U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Ham United U21 win	58%	58%	0
Draw	20%	20%	0
Burnley U21 win	21%	22%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	73%	−7
Both teams to score	63%	69%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
West Ham United U21 or draw	79%	78%	+1
West Ham United U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Burnley U21 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.0 2.6 1 7.1 8.8 5.4 2.3 2 7.7 9.4 5.8 2.5 3 5.6 6.8 4.2 4 3.1 3.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Ham United U21 down, Burnley U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

West Ham United U21 at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Burnley U21 away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for West Ham United U21, 1.25 for Burnley U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

WEST HAM UNITED U21

DLWDL0–0 · 4–5 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–4

BURNLEY U21

LLLWL3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Fulham U21	5	+4	10
8	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
13	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
14	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
15	Reading U21	5	0	7
16	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
17	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
18	Brighton U21	5	−2	5
19	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
20	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	4	−6	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0