Tottenham Hotspur U21 v Leicester City U21 prediction · Premier League 2 Division One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Tottenham Hotspur U21 2–0 Leicester City U21 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tottenham Hotspur U21 win~~53%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.333

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tottenham Hotspur U21 win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tottenham Hotspur U21 was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–20–27
1′KICK-OFF Tottenham Hotspur U21 v Leicester City U21
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Leicester City U21
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tottenham Hotspur U21
45′HALF-TIME Tottenham Hotspur U21 0–0 Leicester City U21
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Tottenham Hotspur U21 win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tottenham Hotspur U21 · On: M. McFadden · Off: T. Hall
46′SECOND HALF Tottenham Hotspur U21 0–0 Leicester City U21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tottenham Hotspur U21 · On: E. Sowunmi · Off: C. Ramsey
52′We said Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–34–25
55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–36–24
56′We said Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–36–24
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tottenham Hotspur U21 · On: M. Adedeji · Off: J. Byfield
62′Tottenham Hotspur U21 find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Tottenham Hotspur U21 1–0 Leicester City U21
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Tottenham Hotspur U21 win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
63′We published Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
69′We published Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Leicester City U21 · On: J. Corden · Off: R. Donnelly
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Leicester City U21 · On: J. King · Off: D. Anugo
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Leicester City U21
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Tottenham Hotspur U21 win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
78′A goal for Tottenham Hotspur U21 on 78′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
78′We published Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tottenham Hotspur U21 2–0 Leicester City U21
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Tottenham Hotspur U21 win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
84′We published Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leicester City U21 · On: B. Akolbire · Off: T. Neale
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tottenham Hotspur U21 · On: R. Moncur · Off: R. Elliott-Parris
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Leicester City U21 · On: W. Daniels · Off: R. Carr
FTFULL TIME Tottenham Hotspur U21 2–0 Leicester City U21
FTTottenham Hotspur U21 2–0 Leicester City U21 · Tottenham Hotspur U21 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tottenham Hotspur U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tottenham Hotspur U21 53%, draw 20%, Leicester City U21 27%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Tottenham Hotspur U21 v Leicester City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tottenham Hotspur U21 win53%

Draw20%

Leicester City U21 win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundRegular season

VenueHotspur Way Training Centre

RefereeL. Smith

Line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur U21

Leicester City U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tottenham Hotspur U21

Leicester City U21

5Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur U21

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Archer

2 J. Rowswell

5 M. Hardy

4 J. Byfield

3 M. King

8 T. Hall

6 H. Byrne

10 C. Ramsey

7 M. Adewole

9 T. Hall

11 R. Elliott-Parris

Coach · Wayne Burnett

Substitutes

13 · D. Thompson

12 · M. Adedeji

14 · R. Moncur

15 · M. McFadden

16 · E. Lehane

17 · E. Sowunmi

18 · L. Furnell-Gill

Leicester City U21

Formation not confirmed

1 H. French

2 L. Aideed

5 M. Toko

4 A. Diallo

3 M. Ali

8 R. Donnelly

6 T. Neale

7 R. Carr

10 H. de Lisle

11 D. Anugo

9 L. Hutchinson

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · L. Stretton

16 · W. Daniels

12 · B. Akolbire

14 · J. Corden

15 · J. King

Our number · tottenham hotspur u21 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market59%

Us53%

~~Market~~59%

We make Tottenham Hotspur U21 a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tottenham Hotspur U21 v Leicester City U21~~2.32 – 1.63

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug~~W3 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 1~~3 v 29

~~The market · Tottenham Hotspur U21 win~~59% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tottenham Hotspur U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tottenham Hotspur U21 win	53%	59%	−6
Draw	20%	20%	0
Leicester City U21 win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Both teams to score	72%	69%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	88%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Tottenham Hotspur U21 or draw	73%	79%	−6
Tottenham Hotspur U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Leicester City U21 clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 3.2 2.6 1 4.5 7.4 5.9 3.2 2 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.7 3 4.0 6.4 5.1 2.8 4 2.3 3.7 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tottenham Hotspur U21 down, Leicester City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tottenham Hotspur U21 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Leicester City U21 away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Tottenham Hotspur U21, 1.63 for Leicester City U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TOT 1–0 LEI · LEI 3–6 TOT · LEI 2–0 TOT · TOT 3–1 LEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR U21

WDWW3–1 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 4–2

LEICESTER CITY U21

LLD1–4 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
2	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
3	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	4	+2	9
10	Everton U21	5	+2	8
11	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
12	Fulham U21	4	+3	7
13	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
14	Reading U21	5	0	7
15	Brentford U21	4	+2	6
16	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
17	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4
19	Brighton U21	4	−2	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0