Stoke City U21 v Chelsea U21

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea U21 win at 61%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chelsea U21 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 21–18–61
3. 1′KICK-OFF Stoke City U21 v Chelsea U21
4. 25′Stoke City U21 score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 44–24–32
5. 25′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 44–24–32
6. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Stoke City U21 1–0 Chelsea U21
7. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 32% now
8. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Stoke City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Chelsea U21 win 32%)
9. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
10. 30′Chelsea U21 find the net on 29′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–24–55
11. 30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Stoke City U21 1–1 Chelsea U21
12. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 55% now
13. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Chelsea U21 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Stoke City U21 win 21%)
14. 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 21–26–53
15. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
16. 45′HALF-TIME Stoke City U21 1–1 Chelsea U21
17. 46′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 21–30–49
18. 46′SECOND HALF Stoke City U21 1–1 Chelsea U21
19. 56′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 20–35–44
20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Chelsea U21 · On: K. Paez · Off: M. Eboue
21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
22. 64′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 19–42–39
23. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Chelsea U21 win 38%)
24. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Stoke City U21 · On: P. Makavore · Off: E. Fearn
25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chelsea U21 · On: Y. Alao · Off: A. Osborne
26. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
27. 75′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 15–57–29
28. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Stoke City U21 · On: T. Midwood · Off: P. Makavore Corrected
29. 79′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 12–65–23
30. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
31. 82′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 10–72–18
32. 84′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 8–78–14
33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Stoke City U21 · On: T. Martin · Off: T. Achu
34. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
35. 89′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 5–86–9
36. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Chelsea U21
37. 93′We said Chelsea U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
38. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Stoke City U21
39. 94′An own goal by Stoke City U21's L. Knight on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
40. 94′We said Chelsea U21 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–2 · 0–2–98
41. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Stoke City U21 1–2 Chelsea U21 · L. Knight (own goal)
42. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Chelsea U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 98% now
43. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Chelsea U21 win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
44. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Chelsea U21
45. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' H. Bettoni · Chelsea U21
46. FTFULL TIME Stoke City U21 1–2 Chelsea U21
47. FTStoke City U21 1–2 Chelsea U21 · Chelsea U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.