Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Reading U21 v Nottingham Forest U21

Reading U21 v Nottingham Forest U21

Reading U21

2–1Full time

Nottingham Forest U21

Premier League 2 Division One · SAT 24 OCT · Saunders Transport Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Reading U21 2–1 Nottingham Forest U21 NOTTINGHAM FOREST U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nottingham Forest U21 win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.651

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.755

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nottingham Forest U21 win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nottingham Forest U21 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Reading U21 v Nottingham Forest U21
22′A goal for Reading U21 on 21′. 0–0 · 33–30–37
22′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–22–15
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Reading U21 1–0 Nottingham Forest U21
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Reading U21 win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Nottingham Forest U21 win 37%)
25′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–13
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Nottingham Forest U21
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Reading U21 1–0 Nottingham Forest U21
46′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nottingham Forest U21 · On: K. Clarke · Off: S. Sutton
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nottingham Forest U21 · On: J. Sinclair · Off: S. Samuels
46′SECOND HALF Reading U21 1–0 Nottingham Forest U21
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Reading U21 1–1 Nottingham Forest U21
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Reading U21 win 68%)
47′Nottingham Forest U21 find the net on 46′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–40–32
57′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 25–46–28
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nottingham Forest U21 · On: J. Powell · Off: S. Nolan
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Reading U21 · On: M. Dashi · Off: S. Lonmeni
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Reading U21 · On: K. Mfuamba · Off: T. Sackey
65′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Reading U21 · On: T. Ntege · Off: S. Patton
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nottingham Forest U21 · On: K. Thompson · Off: F. Smith
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Reading U21 · On: J. Barough · Off: J. Jones
87′We said Nottingham Forest U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Reading U21 2–1 Nottingham Forest U21
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Nottingham Forest U21 win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Reading U21 win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 88%)
88′A goal for Reading U21 on 87′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
FTFULL TIME Reading U21 2–1 Nottingham Forest U21
FTReading U21 2–1 Nottingham Forest U21 · Nottingham Forest U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nottingham Forest U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Reading U21 35%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest U21 40%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Reading U21 v Nottingham Forest U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Reading U21 win35%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest U21 win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundRegular season

VenueSaunders Transport Community Stadium

RefereeL. Smith

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Reading U21

Nottingham Forest U21

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

Last match: 20 Oct · National League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
17	Reading U21	5	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nottingham forest u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Nottingham Forest U21 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Reading U21 v Nottingham Forest U21~~1.32 – 1.43

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~17 v 3

~~The market · Nottingham Forest U21 win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nottingham Forest U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reading U21 win	35%	30%	+5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Nottingham Forest U21 win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Reading U21 or draw	60%	55%	+5
Reading U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nottingham Forest U21 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 9.1 6.6 3.2 1 8.4 12.0 8.5 4.1 2 5.6 7.8 5.5 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reading U21 down, Nottingham Forest U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Reading U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nottingham Forest U21 away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Reading U21, 1.43 for Nottingham Forest U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOT 0–1 REA · REA 0–2 NOT · REA 3–1 NOT · NOT 0–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug

READING U21

LWWDL1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

NOTTINGHAM FOREST U21

LWWWW1–5 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Fulham U21	6	+2	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Brighton U21	6	0	8
13	West Ham United U21	6	0	8
14	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
15	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
16	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
17	Reading U21	5	0	7
18	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
19	Manchester City U21	4	+2	6
20	Ipswich Town U21	4	+1	6
21	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
22	Stoke City U21	6	0	4
23	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Burnley U21	6	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	5	−11	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0