Nottingham Forest U21 v Manchester United U21

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester United U21 win at 43%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester United U21 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 33–24–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Nottingham Forest U21 v Manchester United U21
4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Manchester United U21
5. 21′Nottingham Forest U21 find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
6. 21′We said Manchester United U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
7. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nottingham Forest U21 1–0 Manchester United U21
8. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
9. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Nottingham Forest U21 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Manchester United U21 win 18%)
10. 23′Nottingham Forest U21 ahead on 22′ through F. Smith. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–18
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
12. 36′We said Manchester United U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
13. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
14. 45′D. Armer scores for Manchester United U21 on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–36–36
15. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Nottingham Forest U21 1–1 Manchester United U21 · D. Armer (penalty)
16. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
17. 45′HALF-TIME Nottingham Forest U21 1–1 Manchester United U21
18. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 15' B. Sanneh · Nottingham Forest U21
19. 46′SECOND HALF Nottingham Forest U21 1–1 Manchester United U21
20. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Manchester United U21
21. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nottingham Forest U21 win 27%)
22. 56′Manchester United U21 score on 56′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
23. 56′We said Manchester United U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–2 · 6–20–74
24. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Nottingham Forest U21 1–2 Manchester United U21
25. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
26. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Manchester United U21 win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
27. 58′We said Manchester United U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
28. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Manchester United U21
29. 69′Nottingham Forest U21 find the net on 68′. 2–2. 2–2 · 20–55–24
30. 69′Nottingham Forest U21 level it on 67′ through F. Smith. 2–2. 2–2 · 20–55–24
31. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Nottingham Forest U21 2–2 Manchester United U21
32. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 24% now
33. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Manchester United U21 win 24%)
34. 70′We said Manchester United U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 20–57–24
35. 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 20–57–24
36. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Manchester United U21
37. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
38. 80′A goal for Nottingham Forest U21 on 79′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 85–13–1
39. 80′We said Manchester United U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–2 · 85–13–1
40. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Nottingham Forest U21 3–2 Manchester United U21
41. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Manchester United U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
42. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Nottingham Forest U21 win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
43. 81′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 87–12–1
44. FTFULL TIME Nottingham Forest U21 3–2 Manchester United U21
45. FTNottingham Forest U21 3–2 Manchester United U21 · Manchester United U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.