Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Norwich City U21 v West Ham United U21

Norwich City U21 v West Ham United U21

Norwich City U21

4–2Full time

West Ham United U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 16 OCT · Avant Training Centre

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Norwich City U21 4–2 West Ham United U21 WEST HAM UNITED U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Ham United U21 win~~46%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.732

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham United U21 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: West Ham United U21 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–22–46
1′KICK-OFF Norwich City U21 v West Ham United U21
2′A goal for Norwich City U21 on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 54–21–25
2′We said West Ham United U21 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 54–21–25
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Norwich City U21 1–0 West Ham United U21
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Norwich City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was West Ham United U21 win 25%)
7′We said West Ham United U21 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 54–21–24
10′West Ham United U21 score on 10′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–24–45
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Norwich City U21 1–1 West Ham United U21
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' West Ham United U21 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Norwich City U21 win 31%)
20′West Ham United U21 find the net on 20′. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–18–69
20′We published West Ham United U21 at 46%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–2 · 13–18–69
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Norwich City U21 1–2 West Ham United U21
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
24′We published West Ham United U21 at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 12–18–70
26′A goal for Norwich City U21 on 26′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 30–27–43
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Norwich City U21 2–2 West Ham United U21
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
30′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–28–42
45′HALF-TIME Norwich City U21 2–2 West Ham United U21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Norwich City U21 · On: A. Domeracki · Off: M. Topic
46′SECOND HALF Norwich City U21 2–2 West Ham United U21
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
56′We said West Ham United U21 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 26–40–34
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was West Ham United U21 win 34%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' West Ham United U21 · On: G. Caliste · Off: A. Dike Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' West Ham United U21 · On: C. Obi-Martin · Off: D. Cummings Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' West Ham United U21 · On: M. Balogun · Off: J. Kerr Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Norwich City U21 · On: F. Oligbo · Off: J. Glossop
67′Norwich City U21 score on 67′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 72–22–6
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Norwich City U21 3–2 West Ham United U21
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' West Ham United U21 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Norwich City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
68′We said West Ham United U21 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 3–2 · 72–22–6
68′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 72–22–6
72′We said West Ham United U21 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–2 · 75–20–4
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norwich City U21 · On: R. Cooper · Off: A. Crnac
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norwich City U21 · On: L. Chukwu · Off: B. Ameen
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Norwich City U21
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' West Ham United U21 · On: T. Omotoye · Off: C. Leacock
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' West Ham United U21 · On: L. Beckford · Off: R. Hargan
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Norwich City U21
86′Norwich City U21 find the net on 86′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
86′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Norwich City U21 4–2 West Ham United U21
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Norwich City U21 · On: T. Chilvers · Off: F. Corke
FTFULL TIME Norwich City U21 4–2 West Ham United U21
FTNorwich City U21 4–2 West Ham United U21 · West Ham United U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Ham United U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norwich City U21 32%, draw 22%, West Ham United U21 46%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Norwich City U21 v West Ham United U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Norwich City U21 win32%

Draw22%

West Ham United U21 win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueAvant Training Centre

Line-ups

Norwich City U21

West Ham United U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norwich City U21

West Ham United U21

3Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Norwich City U21	4	+1	7
15	West Ham United U21	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Norwich City U21

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Darbyshire-Came

2 J. Glossop

4 S. Rowland

5 Bruno Alves

3 V. Ozcan

6 M. Topic

8 L. Towler

7 A. Crnac

10 E. Myles

11 B. Ameen

9 F. Corke

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. Chukwu

14 · R. Cooper

15 · T. Chilvers

16 · T. Gwanzura

17 · T. Williams

18 · F. Oligbo

19 · A. Domeracki

West Ham United U21

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Hooper

2 R. Battrum

5 J. Briggs

4 C. Leacock

3 H. Montague

8 R. Hargan

6 P. Fearon

7 A. Dike

10 J. Kerr

11 J. Medine

9 D. Cummings

Coach · Mark Robson

Substitutes

13 · L. Awesu

18 · L. Beckford

14 · G. Caliste

12 · T. Omotoye

17 · M. Balogun

16 · J. Medine

15 · C. Obi-Martin

Our number · west ham united u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

46% The market40%

Us46%

~~Market~~40%

We make West Ham United U21 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norwich City U21 v West Ham United U21~~1.55 – 1.91

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~12 v 15

~~The market · West Ham United U21 win~~40% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · West Ham United U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norwich City U21 win	32%	37%	−5
Draw	22%	23%	−1
West Ham United U21 win	46%	40%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Both teams to score	67%	68%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Norwich City U21 or draw	54%	60%	−6
Norwich City U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–
West Ham United U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.9 5.8 3.7 1 4.8 9.4 8.7 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 7.1 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 3.7 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norwich City U21 down, West Ham United U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norwich City U21 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). West Ham United U21 away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Norwich City U21, 1.91 for West Ham United U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~WES 2–2 NOR · WES 1–0 NOR · NOR 0–2 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

NORWICH CITY U21

WDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–3

WEST HAM UNITED U21

DLWD0–0 · 4–5 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
2	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
3	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
4	Manchester United U21	3	+9	9
5	Chelsea U21	4	+5	9
6	AFC Bournemouth U21	4	+2	9
7	Nottingham Forest U21	4	0	9
8	Liverpool U21	4	+4	7
9	Fulham U21	4	+3	7
10	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
11	Reading U21	4	+1	7
12	Norwich City U21	4	+1	7
13	Brentford U21	4	+2	6
14	Everton U21	4	+1	5
15	West Ham United U21	4	0	5
16	Aston Villa U21	4	−1	5
17	Stoke City U21	4	+2	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4
19	Brighton U21	4	−2	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	4	−1	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	4	−3	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0