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Newcastle United U21 v Sunderland U21

Newcastle United U21

19:00Upcoming

Sunderland U21

Premier League 2 Division One · MON 26 OCT · Northumberland FA

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Newcastle United U21DrawSunderland U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sunderland U21 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sunderland U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle United U21 33%, draw 21%, Sunderland U21 46%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle United U21 v Sunderland U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle United U21 win33%

Draw21%

Sunderland U21 win46%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueNorthumberland FA

RefereeA. Bannister

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle United U21

Sunderland U21

13Days since last match16

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sunderland u21 winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Sunderland U21 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle United U21 v Sunderland U21~~1.82 – 2.15

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 10~~31 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle United U21 win	33%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Sunderland U21 win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Newcastle United U21 or draw	54%	–	–
Newcastle United U21 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Sunderland U21 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 2.1 4.1 4.4 3.2 1 3.5 7.5 7.8 5.6 3.0 2 3.2 6.6 7.0 5.0 2.7 3 4.0 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle United U21 down, Sunderland U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle United U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sunderland U21 away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Newcastle United U21, 2.15 for Sunderland U21. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SUN 1–1 NEW · NEW 1–1 SUN · SUN 2–3 NEW · SUN 2–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug

NEWCASTLE UNITED U21

LLL1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2

SUNDERLAND U21

WLWWD5–1 · 1–5 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	6	0	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Fulham U21	6	+2	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Reading U21	6	+1	10
11	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
12	Everton U21	5	+2	8
13	Brighton U21	6	0	8
14	West Ham United U21	6	0	8
15	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
16	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
17	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
18	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
19	Manchester City U21	4	+2	6
20	Ipswich Town U21	4	+1	6
21	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
22	Stoke City U21	6	0	4
23	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Burnley U21	6	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	5	−11	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0