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Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Manchester City U21 v Stoke City U21

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Manchester City U21 v Stoke City U21

Manchester City U21
4–3Full time
Stoke City U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 23 OCT · Academy Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33
Manchester City U21 4–3 Stoke City U21 MANCHESTER CITY U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Manchester City U21 win75%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.093
The market’s Brier score0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 39 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City U21 win at 75%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City U21 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–14–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City U21 v Stoke City U21
  4. 31′Manchester City U21 find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
  5. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Manchester City U21 1–0 Stoke City U21
  6. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 87% now
  7. 32′We said Manchester City U21 at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–4
  8. 32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Manchester City U21
  9. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 66% now
  10. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
  11. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Stoke City U21 · On: L. Bradbury · Off: A. Walker
  12. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Manchester City U21 1–0 Stoke City U21
  13. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 86% now
  14. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Manchester City U21
  15. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 64% now
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City U21 0–0 Stoke City U21
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City U21 0–0 Stoke City U21
  18. 48′We said Manchester City U21 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–27–14
  19. 50′Stoke City U21 find the net on 49′. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–29–42
  20. 50′We said Manchester City U21 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
  21. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Manchester City U21 0–1 Stoke City U21
  22. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 29% now
  23. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Stoke City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Manchester City U21 win 59%)
  24. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 25% now
  25. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Manchester City U21
  26. 57′We said Manchester City U21 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–30–46
  27. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Manchester City U21 · On: H. Miles · Off: X. Parker Corrected
  28. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Manchester City U21 · On: M. Barrett · Off: J. Wilson-Esbrand
  29. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Manchester City U21 · On: T. Lamb · Off: K. Midwood
  30. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Manchester City U21
  31. 62′A goal for Stoke City U21 on 62′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 6–14–80
  32. 62′We said Manchester City U21 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–14–80
  33. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Manchester City U21 0–2 Stoke City U21
  34. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 6% now
  35. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 5% now
  36. 66′Stoke City U21 score on 65′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
  37. 66′We said Manchester City U21 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–3 · 1–3–96
  38. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Manchester City U21 0–3 Stoke City U21
  39. 67′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 0–3 · 1–3–96
  40. 68′66′: L. Bradbury on the scoresheet for Stoke City U21, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
  41. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Manchester City U21 · On: B. Nfonkeu · Off: F. Gorman
  42. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Manchester City U21 · On: H. Miles · Off: F. Fapetu
  43. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Manchester City U21 1–3 Stoke City U21 · X. Parker (assist T. Lamb)
  44. 76′Manchester City U21 pull one back on 75′ through X. Parker. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
  45. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Manchester City U21
  46. 81′A goal for Manchester City U21 on 81′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 4–21–76
  47. 81′5 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 4–21–76
  48. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Manchester City U21 2–3 Stoke City U21
  49. 86′T. Lamb scores for Manchester City U21 on 80′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–14–85
  50. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Manchester City U21
  51. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' L. Knight · Stoke City U21
  52. 91′Manchester City U21 score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 8–89–3
  53. 91′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 8–89–3
  54. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Manchester City U21 3–3 Stoke City U21
  55. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Stoke City U21 win 91%)
  56. 94′Manchester City U21 find the net on 90′. 4–3. 4–3 · 99–1–0
  57. 94′We said Manchester City U21 at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–3 · 99–1–0
  58. 94′7 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 99–1–0
  59. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Manchester City U21 4–3 Stoke City U21
  60. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Manchester City U21 win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
  61. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Manchester City U21 win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 93%)
  62. FTFULL TIME Manchester City U21 4–3 Stoke City U21
  63. FTManchester City U21 4–3 Stoke City U21 · Manchester City U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester City U21 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City U21 75%, draw 14%, Stoke City U21 11%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Manchester City U21 v Stoke City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Manchester City U21 win75%
Draw14%
Stoke City U21 win11%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueAcademy Stadium

RefereeS. Copeland

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manchester City U21

Stoke City U21

34Days since last match3

Last match: 19 Sept · Premier League 2 Division One

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League International Cup

0Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
20Stoke City U215+14
22Manchester City U213+13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchester city u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
75% The market78%
Us75%
Market78%

We make Manchester City U21 a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Manchester City U21 v Stoke City U213.11 – 1.17
Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 AugW1 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L3
Table places · points 3 v 422 v 20
The market · Manchester City U21 win78% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:41
Our probability · Manchester City U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Manchester City U21 win75%78%−3
Draw14%14%0
Stoke City U21 win11%8%+3
Over 2.5 goals79%77%+2
Both teams to score65%60%+5
Over 1.5 goals92%90%+2
Over 3.5 goals61%61%0
Manchester City U21 or draw89%92%−3
Manchester City U21 clean sheet31%––
Stoke City U21 clean sheet5%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.9%
0123450 1 4.4 5.2 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.5 3 6.8 7.9 4.6 4 5.3 6.1 3.6 5 3.3 3.8 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Manchester City U21 down, Stoke City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (89.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting5.67
Over 2.53 of 3
Both scored3 of 3
Last meetingsSTO 1–6 MAN · MAN 2–2 STO · STO 5–1 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

MANCHESTER CITY U21

WLL4–0 · 1–2 · 2–4

STOKE CITY U21

LDWLL2–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tottenham Hotspur U215+813
2Chelsea U215+612
3Nottingham Forest U215+112
4Liverpool U215+510
5Southampton U214+510
6Sunderland U215+410
7Fulham U215+410
8Norwich City U215+310
9AFC Bournemouth U215+210
10Manchester United U214+89
11Everton U215+28
12Aston Villa U21508
13Crystal Palace U214+47
14Derby County U215+17
15Reading U21507
16Leeds United U215−17
17Brentford U215+16
18Brighton U215−25
19West Ham United U215−25
20Stoke City U215+14
21Arsenal U215−34
22Manchester City U213+13
23Burnley U215−23
24Blackburn Rovers U213−33
25Ipswich Town U213−43
26Wolves U214−93
27Middlesbrough U215−42
28Birmingham City U214−62
29West Bromwich Albion U214−41
30Leicester City U214−81
31Newcastle United U213−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.