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Model 1.2

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Liverpool U21 v Reading U21

Liverpool U21
1–0Full time
Reading U21

Premier League 2 Division One · SAT 17 OCT · Liverpool Academy

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Liverpool U21 1–0 Reading U21 LIVERPOOL U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Liverpool U21 win58%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.260
The market’s Brier score0.313

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Liverpool U21 win at 58%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Liverpool U21 v Reading U21
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Liverpool U21 was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
  4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Liverpool U21 0–0 Reading U21
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Liverpool U21 0–0 Reading U21
  7. 46′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–33–21
  8. 50′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–21
  9. 55′We expected about 3.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–38–20
  10. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Liverpool U21
  11. 60′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  12. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  13. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Liverpool U21 win 38%)
  14. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Liverpool U21 · On: J. Bradshaw · Off: J. McConnell
  15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Liverpool U21 · On: A. Ayman · Off: L. Chambers
  16. 67′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
  17. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Liverpool U21 · On: F. Onanuga · Off: L. Pitt
  18. 72′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
  19. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Liverpool U21
  20. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
  21. 75′PENALTY MISSED · 74' Reading U21
  22. 77′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–64–12
  23. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Reading U21 · On: M. Dashi · Off: S. Lonmeni
  24. 80′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–10
  25. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Liverpool U21 · On: J. Upton · Off: B. Trueman
  26. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  27. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Reading U21
  28. 83′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  29. 88′We said Liverpool U21 at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  30. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Liverpool U21
  31. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  32. 90′Full time, 1–0. We called Liverpool U21 at 58% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 92′90′: T. Ndiaye on the scoresheet for Liverpool U21, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
  34. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Liverpool U21 1–0 Reading U21 · T. Ndiaye (assist O. Connor)
  35. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
  36. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Liverpool U21 win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  37. 93′We published Liverpool U21 at 58%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Liverpool U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  39. FTFULL TIME Liverpool U21 1–0 Reading U21
  40. FTLiverpool U21 1–0 Reading U21 · Liverpool U21 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Liverpool U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool U21 58%, draw 20%, Reading U21 21%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Liverpool U21 v Reading U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Liverpool U21 win58%
Draw20%
Reading U21 win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundRegular season

VenueLiverpool Academy

Line-ups

Liverpool U21

Reading U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liverpool U21

Reading U21

11Days since last match8

Last match: 6 Oct · EFL Trophy

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Liverpool U214+47
13Reading U214+17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Liverpool U21

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Hall

2 L. Pitt

4 W. Lucky

5 T. Ndiaye

3 L. Chambers

6 B. Trueman

8 M. Laffey

7 O. Connor

10 J. McConnell

11 J. Sonni-Lambie

9 J. Danns

Coach · Robert Page

Substitutes

13 · M. Wright

14 · P. K. Cisse

12 · A. Ayman

17 · J. Bradshaw

15 · J. Upton

16 · F. Onanuga

18 · W. Wright

Reading U21

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Welland

3 A. Ahmed

5 B. Beacroft

6 P. Duah

2 T. Saint-Louis

8 T. Sackey

4 L. Howard

7 E. Osho

9 S. Lonmeni

10 C. Bowdery

11 S. Patton

Coach · Peter Scott

Substitutes

13 · A. Khan

12 · C. Cliff

17 · C. Logan

14 · M. Dashi

16 · K. Mfuamba

15 · J. Jones

18 · T. Ntege

Our number · liverpool u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
58% The market54%
Us58%
Market54%

We make Liverpool U21 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Liverpool U21 v Reading U212.20 – 1.26
Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 AugW2 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1
Table places · points 7 v 710 v 13
The market · Liverpool U21 win54% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 13:24
Our probability · Liverpool U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Liverpool U21 win58%54%+4
Draw20%21%−1
Reading U21 win21%25%−4
Over 2.5 goals67%70%−3
Both teams to score63%67%−4
Over 1.5 goals86%86%0
Over 3.5 goals45%51%−6
Liverpool U21 or draw79%75%+4
Liverpool U21 clean sheet29%––
Reading U21 clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.5 3.9 2.6 1 6.9 8.8 5.4 2.3 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.5 6.8 4.3 4 3.1 3.8 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool U21 down, Reading U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsREA 1–1 LIV · REA 0–0 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

LIVERPOOL U21

DWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 5–1

READING U21

LWWD1–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chelsea U215+612
2Nottingham Forest U215+112
3Tottenham Hotspur U214+610
4Southampton U214+510
5Sunderland U215+410
6Norwich City U215+310
7Manchester United U214+89
8AFC Bournemouth U214+29
9Everton U215+28
10Liverpool U214+47
11Fulham U214+37
12Leeds United U214+27
13Reading U214+17
14Brentford U214+26
15Aston Villa U214−15
16West Ham United U215−25
17Stoke City U215+14
18Crystal Palace U213+14
19Brighton U214−24
20Derby County U214−34
21Arsenal U215−34
22Manchester City U213+13
23Burnley U214−13
24Blackburn Rovers U213−33
25Ipswich Town U213−43
26Birmingham City U213−22
27Middlesbrough U215−42
28West Bromwich Albion U213−31
29Leicester City U213−61
30Newcastle United U213−80
31Wolves U213−100

The competition's standings before kick-off.