Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Leicester City U21 v Arsenal U21

Leicester City U21 v Arsenal U21

Leicester City U21

4–1Full time

Arsenal U21

Premier League 2 Division One · SAT 24 OCT · LCFC Training Ground

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Leicester City U21 4–1 Arsenal U21 LEICESTER CITY U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leicester City U21 win~~43%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.495

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.650

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leicester City U21 win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leicester City U21 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
1′KICK-OFF Leicester City U21 v Arsenal U21
5′Leicester City U21 score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–18–17
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Leicester City U21 1–0 Arsenal U21
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Leicester City U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
6′We published Leicester City U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–18–17
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 67–20–13
45′We published Leicester City U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
45′HALF-TIME Leicester City U21 1–0 Arsenal U21
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Arsenal U21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arsenal U21 · On: M. Washington · Off: M. Salmon
46′SECOND HALF Leicester City U21 1–0 Arsenal U21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Leicester City U21 · On: R. Donnelly · Off: L. Aideed
54′Leicester City U21 find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Leicester City U21 2–0 Arsenal U21
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Leicester City U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
55′We published Leicester City U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Leicester City U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
61′A goal for Leicester City U21 on 60′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
61′We published Leicester City U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Leicester City U21 3–0 Arsenal U21
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arsenal U21 · On: I. Tyjon · Off: E. Mooney
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arsenal U21 · On: C. O'Neill · Off: D. Agustien
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arsenal U21 · On: A. Pedro · Off: I. Ibrahim
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Leicester City U21
69′We published Leicester City U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′Leicester City U21 score on 69′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Leicester City U21 4–0 Arsenal U21
72′Arsenal U21 find the net on 72′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leicester City U21 · On: J. King · Off: A. Bristric
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Leicester City U21 4–1 Arsenal U21
73′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leicester City U21 · On: H. Sutherington · Off: O. Aluko
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Arsenal U21
FTFULL TIME Leicester City U21 4–1 Arsenal U21
FTLeicester City U21 4–1 Arsenal U21 · Leicester City U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leicester City U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leicester City U21 43%, draw 22%, Arsenal U21 35%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Leicester City U21 v Arsenal U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Leicester City U21 win43%

Draw22%

Arsenal U21 win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundRegular season

VenueLCFC Training Ground

RefereeD. Bourne

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leicester City U21

Arsenal U21

6Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
23	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leicester city u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

43% The market35%

Us43%

~~Market~~35%

We make Leicester City U21 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leicester City U21 v Arsenal U21~~1.84 – 1.64

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~30 v 23

~~The market · Leicester City U21 win~~35% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leicester City U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leicester City U21 win	43%	35%	+8
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Arsenal U21 win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Both teams to score	67%	66%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Leicester City U21 or draw	65%	58%	+7
Leicester City U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Arsenal U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 5.1 4.2 2.3 1 5.7 9.3 7.5 4.1 2 5.3 8.4 6.8 3.7 3 3.2 5.2 4.2 2.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leicester City U21 down, Arsenal U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leicester City U21 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal U21 away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Leicester City U21, 1.64 for Arsenal U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARS 1–5 LEI · ARS 4–1 LEI · ARS 2–1 LEI · LEI 1–2 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 22 Aug

LEICESTER CITY U21

LLDL1–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–2

ARSENAL U21

DDLDD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Fulham U21	6	+2	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Brighton U21	6	0	8
13	West Ham United U21	6	0	8
14	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
15	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
16	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
17	Reading U21	5	0	7
18	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
19	Manchester City U21	4	+2	6
20	Ipswich Town U21	4	+1	6
21	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
22	Stoke City U21	6	0	4
23	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Burnley U21	6	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	5	−11	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0