Leeds United U21 v Crystal Palace U21 prediction · Premier League 2 Division One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Leeds United U21 1–4 Crystal Palace U21 CRYSTAL PALACE U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crystal Palace U21 win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.484

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crystal Palace U21 win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Crystal Palace U21 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Leeds United U21 v Crystal Palace U21
10′Leeds United U21 find the net on 10′. 0–0 · 33–24–43
10′We said Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 57–21–22
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Leeds United U21 1–0 Crystal Palace U21
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Crystal Palace U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Leeds United U21 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Crystal Palace U21 win 22%)
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Leeds United U21 1–1 Crystal Palace U21
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Crystal Palace U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Crystal Palace U21 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Leeds United U21 win 33%)
22′Crystal Palace U21 score on 22′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–26–41
32′We published Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–2 · 12–20–68
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Leeds United U21 1–2 Crystal Palace U21
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Crystal Palace U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
33′Crystal Palace U21 find the net on 33′. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–20–68
34′Crystal Palace U21 ahead on 32′ through A. Nascimento. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–20–69
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Leeds United U21
42′We published Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Leeds United U21 1–2 Crystal Palace U21
45′SECOND HALF Leeds United U21 1–2 Crystal Palace U21
51′A. Nascimento scores for Crystal Palace U21 on 51′. 1–2 · 8–20–71
52′We published Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–3 · 2–6–92
52′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–6–92
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Leeds United U21 1–3 Crystal Palace U21 · A. Nascimento (assist S. Williams)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Crystal Palace U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Crystal Palace U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
62′Crystal Palace U21 find the net on 62′. 1–3 · 1–5–94
63′We published Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Leeds United U21 1–4 Crystal Palace U21
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Crystal Palace U21 · On: D. Angibeaud · Off: A. Nascimento
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Crystal Palace U21 · On: C. Kporha · Off: N. Kalembo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leeds United U21 · On: D. Hodja · Off: C. Njinko
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leeds United U21 · On: D. Hodja · Off: C. Njinko
69′We published Crystal Palace U21 at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' A. Cresswell · Leeds United U21
72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leeds United U21 · On: J. McDonald · Off: S. Alker
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Crystal Palace U21
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Crystal Palace U21 · On: D. Martin · Off: J. Gibbard
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Crystal Palace U21 · On: K. Adams-Collman · Off: E. Danaher
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Crystal Palace U21
88′A red card for Crystal Palace U21 on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Leeds United U21 1–4 Crystal Palace U21
FTLeeds United U21 1–4 Crystal Palace U21 · Crystal Palace U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crystal Palace U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leeds United U21 34%, draw 22%, Crystal Palace U21 44%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Leeds United U21 v Crystal Palace U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leeds United U21 win34%

Draw22%

Crystal Palace U21 win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundRegular season

VenueThorp Arch

RefereeN. Smith

Line-ups

Leeds United U21

Crystal Palace U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leeds United U21

Crystal Palace U21

5Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · EFL Trophy

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League International Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leeds United U21

Formation not confirmed

58 R. Cook

50 A. Cresswell

62 L. Enahoro

65 J. Lienou

63 F. Lane

47 R. Chadwick-Chaplin

66 O. Pickles

75 L. Philpott

74 S. Alker

78 C. Njinko

72 C. Mills

Coach · Scott Gardner

Substitutes

12 · D. Ombang

56 · R. Egan-Riley

68 · L. Matykiewicz

51 · D. Hodja

55 · J. McDonald

Crystal Palace U21

Formation not confirmed

41 H. Lee

58 C. Okoli

3 G. King

57 S. Somade

65 N. Kalembo

43 S. Williams

62 E. Danaher

40 J. Gibbard

54 D. Benamar

47 A. Nascimento

12 Z. Gozo

Coach · Darren Powell

Substitutes

51 · M. Hill

48 · T. Whyte

77 · D. Martin

50 · K. Adams-Collman

38 · C. Kporha

15 · D. Angibeaud

72 · J. Fasida

Our number · crystal palace u21 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Crystal Palace U21 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leeds United U21 v Crystal Palace U21~~1.59 – 1.83

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~13 v 18

~~The market · Crystal Palace U21 win~~39% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crystal Palace U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leeds United U21 win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Crystal Palace U21 win	44%	39%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Both teams to score	66%	69%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Leeds United U21 or draw	56%	61%	−5
Leeds United U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Crystal Palace U21 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 6.0 5.5 3.4 1 5.2 9.5 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.7 4.1 3 2.2 4.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leeds United U21 down, Crystal Palace U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leeds United U21 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Crystal Palace U21 away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Leeds United U21, 1.83 for Crystal Palace U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CRY 3–2 LEE · LEE 1–1 CRY · LEE 1–7 CRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 22 Aug

LEEDS UNITED U21

WLDW4–3 · 1–2 · 4–4 · 2–0

CRYSTAL PALACE U21

DWL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
2	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
3	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	4	+2	9
10	Everton U21	5	+2	8
11	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
12	Fulham U21	4	+3	7
13	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
14	Reading U21	5	0	7
15	Brentford U21	4	+2	6
16	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
17	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4
19	Brighton U21	4	−2	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0