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Ipswich Town U21 v Birmingham City U21

Ipswich Town U21

5–0Full time

Birmingham City U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 23 OCT · Ipswich Town Training Centre

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Ipswich Town U21 5–0 Birmingham City U21 IPSWICH TOWN U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ipswich Town U21 win~~59%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.258

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.225

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ipswich Town U21 win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ipswich Town U21 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–24
1′KICK-OFF Ipswich Town U21 v Birmingham City U21
12′A goal for Ipswich Town U21 on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–13–11
12′We said Ipswich Town U21 at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–13–11
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ipswich Town U21 1–0 Birmingham City U21
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Ipswich Town U21 win: 59% at kick-off, 76% now
29′Ipswich Town U21 score on 28′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Ipswich Town U21 2–0 Birmingham City U21
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Ipswich Town U21 win: 59% at kick-off, 90% now
30′We said Ipswich Town U21 at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
33′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 91–6–3
40′Ipswich Town U21 find the net on 39′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–1
40′We said Ipswich Town U21 at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Ipswich Town U21 3–0 Birmingham City U21
45′HALF-TIME Ipswich Town U21 3–0 Birmingham City U21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birmingham City U21 · On: A. Ranson · Off: L. McCourtie
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birmingham City U21 · On: F. Hawkeswood · Off: R. Thompson-Jones
46′SECOND HALF Ipswich Town U21 3–0 Birmingham City U21
52′A goal for Ipswich Town U21 on 52′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′J. Pitts scores for Ipswich Town U21 on 51′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Ipswich Town U21 4–0 Birmingham City U21
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Ipswich Town U21 win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
53′We said Ipswich Town U21 at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′Ipswich Town U21 score on 54′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ipswich Town U21 5–0 Birmingham City U21
55′5 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Birmingham City U21 · On: T. Ugorji · Off: C. Reilly
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Birmingham City U21 · On: M. Campbell · Off: F. McGreevy
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Birmingham City U21
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ipswich Town U21 · On: Trialist · Off: L. Fletcher
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ipswich Town U21 · On: N. Eze · Off: F. Runham
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Birmingham City U21
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Ipswich Town U21
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ipswich Town U21 · On: I. Boakye-King · Off: C. Compton
FTFULL TIME Ipswich Town U21 5–0 Birmingham City U21
FTIpswich Town U21 5–0 Birmingham City U21 · Ipswich Town U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ipswich Town U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ipswich Town U21 59%, draw 18%, Birmingham City U21 24%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Ipswich Town U21 v Birmingham City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ipswich Town U21 win59%

Draw18%

Birmingham City U21 win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundRegular season

VenueIpswich Town Training Centre

RefereeJ. Richardson

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ipswich Town U21

Birmingham City U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League International Cup

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
28	Birmingham City U21	4	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ipswich town u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make Ipswich Town U21 a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ipswich Town U21 v Birmingham City U21~~2.69 – 1.70

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~25 v 28

~~The market · Ipswich Town U21 win~~61% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ipswich Town U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ipswich Town U21 win	59%	61%	−2
Draw	18%	18%	0
Birmingham City U21 win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Both teams to score	76%	69%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	93%	89%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	63%	57%	+6
Ipswich Town U21 or draw	76%	80%	−4
Ipswich Town U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–
Birmingham City U21 clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.5%

0123450 2.2 1 3.4 5.8 4.8 2.7 2 4.5 7.5 6.3 3.6 3 4.0 6.7 5.6 3.2 4 2.7 4.5 3.8 2.2 5 2.5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Ipswich Town U21 down, Birmingham City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ipswich Town U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham City U21 away: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Ipswich Town U21, 1.70 for Birmingham City U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BIR 0–3 IPS · IPS 6–1 BIR · BIR 4–2 IPS · IPS 0–0 BIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug

IPSWICH TOWN U21

LWL0–5 · 4–1 · 2–4

BIRMINGHAM CITY U21

DLDL3–3 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Fulham U21	5	+4	10
8	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
13	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
14	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
15	Reading U21	5	0	7
16	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
17	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
18	Brighton U21	5	−2	5
19	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
20	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	4	−6	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0