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Fulham U21 v Brighton U21

Fulham U21

2–4Full time

Brighton U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 23 OCT · Motspur Park

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Fulham U21 2–4 Brighton U21 FULHAM U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fulham U21 win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fulham U21 win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fulham U21 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–31
1′KICK-OFF Fulham U21 v Brighton U21
3′Brighton U21 find the net on 3′. 0–0 · 47–22–31
3′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–20–53
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Fulham U21 0–1 Brighton U21
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 27% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Brighton U21 win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Fulham U21 win 47%)
12′A goal for Brighton U21 on 11′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 11–14–75
12′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–2 · 11–14–75
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Fulham U21 0–2 Brighton U21
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 11% now
16′Fulham U21 score on 16′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 24–21–54
16′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–21–54
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Fulham U21 1–2 Brighton U21
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
19′15′: M. Zepa on the scoresheet for Fulham U21, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 23–22–55
29′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Fulham U21 · On: J. Sani · Off: J. Kusi Asare
33′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–23–58
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Brighton U21
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Fulham U21 1–2 Brighton U21
46′SECOND HALF Fulham U21 1–2 Brighton U21
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Brighton U21
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Fulham U21
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brighton U21 · On: L. Crutchett · Off: I. Alakiu
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fulham U21 · On: S. Chingwaro · Off: A. White
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Brighton U21
61′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
64′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–2 · 8–23–69
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 27–53–20
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Fulham U21 2–2 Brighton U21
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 27% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Brighton U21 win 73%)
72′Fulham U21 find the net on 71′. 2–2. 2–2 · 26–55–20
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Brighton U21
78′Fulham U21 level it on 70′ through M. Zepa. 2–2. 2–2 · 20–65–15
78′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Brighton U21 · On: D. Lane · Off: H. Kasvosve
78′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fulham U21 · On: E. Nsasi · Off: M. Gomins
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Brighton U21 · On: V. Joseph · Off: K. Shaw
80′Brighton U21 find the net on 80′. 2–2 · 17–69–13
80′We said Fulham U21 at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–3 · 2–15–83
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Fulham U21 2–3 Brighton U21
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Fulham U21 win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Brighton U21 win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 69%)
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 2–14–84
83′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Fulham U21 2–4 Brighton U21
84′Brighton U21 score on 83′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fulham U21 · On: T. Olyott · Off: N. Benchaita
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Brighton U21 · On: S. Ademola · Off: S. Nti
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Brighton U21 · On: A. West · Off: G. Munday
FTFULL TIME Fulham U21 2–4 Brighton U21
FTFulham U21 2–4 Brighton U21 · Fulham U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fulham U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fulham U21 48%, draw 21%, Brighton U21 31%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Fulham U21 v Brighton U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fulham U21 win48%

Draw21%

Brighton U21 win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueMotspur Park

RefereeA. Farmer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fulham U21

Brighton U21

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fulham U21	5	+4	10
18	Brighton U21	5	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fulham u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Fulham U21 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fulham U21 v Brighton U21~~2.04 – 1.62

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~7 v 18

~~The market · Fulham U21 win~~38% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fulham U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fulham U21 win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Brighton U21 win	31%	38%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Both teams to score	69%	69%	0
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Fulham U21 or draw	69%	62%	+7
Fulham U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Brighton U21 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 4.2 3.4 1 5.3 8.5 6.8 3.7 2 5.4 8.5 6.8 3.7 3 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fulham U21 down, Brighton U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fulham U21 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Brighton U21 away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Fulham U21, 1.62 for Brighton U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BRI 3–4 FUL · BRI 1–3 FUL · FUL 3–0 BRI · FUL 3–2 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

FULHAM U21

WWDLW4–3 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 2–1

BRIGHTON U21

LDWLD1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–5 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Fulham U21	5	+4	10
8	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
13	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
14	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
15	Reading U21	5	0	7
16	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
17	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
18	Brighton U21	5	−2	5
19	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
20	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	4	−6	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0