Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Everton U21 v Middlesbrough U21

Back
England flag

Everton U21 v Middlesbrough U21

Everton U21
2–1Full time
Middlesbrough U21

Premier League 2 Division One · FRI 16 OCT · Walton Hall Park

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30
Everton U21 2–1 Middlesbrough U21 EVERTON U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Everton U21 win43%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.489
The market’s Brier score0.519

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Everton U21 win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Everton U21 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Everton U21 v Middlesbrough U21
  4. 13′A goal for Middlesbrough U21 on 13′. 0–0 · 42–25–33
  5. 14′We said Everton U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–21–58
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Everton U21 0–1 Middlesbrough U21
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
  8. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Middlesbrough U21 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Everton U21 win 21%)
  9. 19′We said Everton U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
  10. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Middlesbrough U21
  11. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Everton U21
  12. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Middlesbrough U21
  13. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–61
  14. 39′We said Everton U21 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
  15. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Everton U21 1–1 Middlesbrough U21
  16. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
  17. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Everton U21 win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Middlesbrough U21 win 31%)
  18. 41′J. Patterson scores for Everton U21 on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–33–30
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Everton U21 1–1 Middlesbrough U21
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Everton U21 1–1 Middlesbrough U21
  21. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Everton U21 win 34%)
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  23. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Everton U21 · On: C. Bates · Off: M. Olayiwola
  24. 58′A goal for Everton U21 on 58′. 1–1 · 32–42–26
  25. 58′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 2–1 · 74–20–6
  26. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Everton U21 2–1 Middlesbrough U21
  27. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  28. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Everton U21 win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
  29. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Middlesbrough U21
  30. 61′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
  31. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Everton U21 · On: S. Pita · Off: J. Nsangou
  32. 71′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Middlesbrough U21 · On: F. Coulson · Off: E. Tika-Lemba
  34. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  35. 78′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Everton U21 · On: J. Clarke · Off: C. Loney
  37. 83′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  38. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Middlesbrough U21 · On: J. Roberts · Off: J. Carbon
  39. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Everton U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  40. 90′We said Everton U21 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  41. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 43% on Everton U21 comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Everton U21
  43. FTFULL TIME Everton U21 2–1 Middlesbrough U21
  44. FTEverton U21 2–1 Middlesbrough U21 · Everton U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Everton U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Everton U21 43%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough U21 34%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Everton U21 v Middlesbrough U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Everton U21 win43%
Draw23%
Middlesbrough U21 win34%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueWalton Hall Park

Line-ups

Everton U21

Middlesbrough U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Everton U21

Middlesbrough U21

3Days since last match16

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

Last match: 30 Sept · Premier League International Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Everton U214+15
27Middlesbrough U214−32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Everton U21

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Pickford

2 G. Finney

4 L. Gardner

5 J. Dodds

3 E. Carrington

8 M. Matos

6 J. Patterson

10 M. Olayiwola

11 B. Graham

9 C. Loney

7 J. Nsangou

Coach · David Hughes

Substitutes

12 · F. Barnsley

14 · J. van Schoor

15 · F. Gomez

16 · C. Bates

17 · S. Pita

18 · O. Benjamin

19 · J. Clarke

Middlesbrough U21

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Foster

4 E. Tika-Lemba

3 A. Okonola

5 J. Wilson

2 R. Patterson-Powell

8 L. McCabe

6 I. Greenup

7 J. Carbon

11 T. Smith

9 C. Ibeh

10 L. Campbell

Coach · Mark Tinkler

Substitutes

21 · S. Connor

12 · F. Coulson

14 · L. Harrison

15 · H. L. Listowell

16 · C. Cole

17 · J. Roberts

Our number · everton u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
43% The market42%
Us43%
Market42%

We make Everton U21 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Everton U21 v Middlesbrough U211.79 – 1.56
Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 AugW1 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L2
Table places · points 5 v 214 v 27
The market · Everton U21 win42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 18:38
Our probability · Everton U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Everton U21 win43%42%+1
Draw23%24%−1
Middlesbrough U21 win34%35%−1
Over 2.5 goals65%66%−1
Both teams to score65%67%−2
Over 1.5 goals85%84%+1
Over 3.5 goals43%46%−3
Everton U21 or draw66%65%+1
Everton U21 clean sheet21%––
Middlesbrough U21 clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 3.9 5.4 4.3 2.3 1 6.2 9.9 7.5 3.9 2 5.6 8.6 6.6 3.5 3 3.4 5.1 4.0 2.1 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Everton U21 down, Middlesbrough U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsMID 0–1 EVE · MID 2–2 EVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

EVERTON U21

DLWD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

MIDDLESBROUGH U21

LLDD0–1 · 1–3 · 4–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tottenham Hotspur U214+610
2Southampton U214+510
3Sunderland U215+410
4Manchester United U213+99
5Chelsea U214+59
6AFC Bournemouth U214+29
7Nottingham Forest U21409
8Liverpool U214+47
9Fulham U214+37
10Leeds United U214+27
11Reading U214+17
12Norwich City U214+17
13Brentford U214+26
14Everton U214+15
15West Ham United U21405
16Aston Villa U214−15
17Stoke City U214+24
18Crystal Palace U213+14
19Brighton U214−24
20Derby County U214−34
21Arsenal U215−34
22Manchester City U213+13
23Burnley U214−13
24Blackburn Rovers U213−33
25Ipswich Town U213−43
26Birmingham City U213−22
27Middlesbrough U214−32
28West Bromwich Albion U213−31
29Leicester City U213−61
30Newcastle United U213−80
31Wolves U213−100

The competition's standings before kick-off.