Home › Football › Premier League 2 Division One › Derby County U21 v Norwich City U21

Derby County U21 v Norwich City U21

Derby County U21

19:00Upcoming

Norwich City U21

Premier League 2 Division One · MON 26 OCT · Grange Park

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Derby County U21DrawNorwich City U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Norwich City U21 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Norwich City U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Derby County U21 39%, draw 22%, Norwich City U21 40%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Derby County U21 v Norwich City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Derby County U21 win39%

Draw22%

Norwich City U21 win40%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueGrange Park

RefereeM. Scholes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derby County U21

Norwich City U21

7Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League 2 Division One

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
17	Derby County U21	5	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · norwich city u21 winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Norwich City U21 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derby County U21 v Norwich City U21~~1.86 – 1.87

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~17 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derby County U21 win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Norwich City U21 win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Derby County U21 or draw	60%	–	–
Derby County U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Norwich City U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.6 4.5 4.3 2.7 1 4.5 8.4 7.7 4.8 2.3 2 4.2 7.6 7.0 4.4 2.1 3 2.6 4.7 4.4 2.7 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derby County U21 down, Norwich City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,594 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derby County U21 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Norwich City U21 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Derby County U21, 1.87 for Norwich City U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DER 0–3 NOR · DER 0–3 NOR · NOR 2–1 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 23 Aug

DERBY COUNTY U21

WDLLW3–1 · 4–4 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 4–0

NORWICH CITY U21

WDWLW1–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	6	0	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
8	Fulham U21	6	+2	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Reading U21	6	+1	10
11	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
12	Everton U21	5	+2	8
13	Brighton U21	6	0	8
14	West Ham United U21	6	0	8
15	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
16	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
17	Derby County U21	5	+1	7
18	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
19	Manchester City U21	4	+2	6
20	Ipswich Town U21	4	+1	6
21	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
22	Stoke City U21	6	0	4
23	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Burnley U21	6	−4	3
26	Wolves U21	4	−9	3
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	Birmingham City U21	5	−11	2
29	West Bromwich Albion U21	4	−4	1
30	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
31	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0