Burnley U21 v Aston Villa U21 prediction · Premier League 2 Division One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Burnley U21 0–1 Aston Villa U21 BURNLEY U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burnley U21 win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burnley U21 win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Burnley U21 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–37
1′KICK-OFF Burnley U21 v Aston Villa U21
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Aston Villa U21
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Burnley U21
45′HALF-TIME Burnley U21 0–0 Aston Villa U21
46′SECOND HALF Burnley U21 0–0 Aston Villa U21
53′A goal for Aston Villa U21 on 52′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–67
53′We said Burnley U21 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–67
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Burnley U21 0–1 Aston Villa U21
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Burnley U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Aston Villa U21 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Burnley U21 win 10%)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aston Villa U21 · On: M. Meade · Off: M. Cotcher
55′M. Meade scores for Aston Villa U21 on 53′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–68
56′We said Burnley U21 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Aston Villa U21 · On: J. Blake · Off: A. Lynskey
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Aston Villa U21 · On: F. Boyd · Off: M. Jenner
71′We said Burnley U21 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Burnley U21 · On: B. Pouani · Off: E. Agyei
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Burnley U21 · On: E. Clark · Off: Lucas
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Burnley U21
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aston Villa U21 · On: T. Bloomfield · Off: C. Brannigan
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Burnley U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Burnley U21 · On: B. Derbyshire · Off: L. Castell
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Aston Villa U21
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Burnley U21
FTFULL TIME Burnley U21 0–1 Aston Villa U21
FTBurnley U21 0–1 Aston Villa U21 · Burnley U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Burnley U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Burnley U21 41%, draw 22%, Aston Villa U21 37%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Burnley U21 v Aston Villa U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Burnley U21 win41%

Draw22%

Aston Villa U21 win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundRegular season

VenueBurnley FC Training Centre

Line-ups

Burnley U21

Aston Villa U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burnley U21

Aston Villa U21

8Days since last match25

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League Cup

Last match: 22 Sept · EFL Trophy

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Aston Villa U21	4	−1	5
23	Burnley U21	4	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Burnley U21

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Edwards

2 E. Airoboma

4 M. Stanley

5 M. Campbell

3 C. Scott

8 Lucas

6 G. Brierley

7 E. Agyei

10 L. Castell

11 Z. Johnson

9 D. Okonkwo

Coach · Andy Farrell

Substitutes

12 · J. Robinson

14 · C. King

15 · E. Clark

16 · T. Savage

17 · B. Pouani

18 · B. Derbyshire

19 · Zhang Jiaming

Aston Villa U21

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Lewis

2 W. Burgess

4 T. Carroll

5 L. Routh

3 R. Fortes

8 M. Jenner

6 K. Quinn

7 O. Johnson

10 C. Brannigan

11 A. Lynskey

9 M. Cotcher

Coach · James Shan

Substitutes

13 · O. Asemota

12 · T. Bloomfield

14 · F. Addey

15 · F. Boyd

16 · J. Blake

17 · T. Mulley

18 · M. Meade

Our number · burnley u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Burnley U21 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burnley U21 v Aston Villa U21~~1.84 – 1.74

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 5~~23 v 15

~~The market · Burnley U21 win~~32% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Burnley U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burnley U21 win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	22%	22%	0
Aston Villa U21 win	37%	45%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Both teams to score	69%	72%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Burnley U21 or draw	63%	55%	+8
Burnley U21 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Aston Villa U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 4.8 4.3 2.5 1 5.1 9.0 7.6 4.5 2 4.7 8.0 6.9 4.0 3 2.9 4.9 4.3 2.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burnley U21 down, Aston Villa U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Burnley U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aston Villa U21 away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Burnley U21, 1.74 for Aston Villa U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 21 Aug

BURNLEY U21

LLLW3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 4–1

ASTON VILLA U21

WLDD2–1 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
2	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
3	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
4	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
5	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
6	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
7	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
8	AFC Bournemouth U21	4	+2	9
9	Everton U21	5	+2	8
10	Liverpool U21	4	+4	7
11	Fulham U21	4	+3	7
12	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
13	Reading U21	4	+1	7
14	Brentford U21	4	+2	6
15	Aston Villa U21	4	−1	5
16	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
17	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4
19	Brighton U21	4	−2	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	4	−1	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0