Brighton U21 v AFC Bournemouth U21

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton U21 win at 51%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Brighton U21 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Brighton U21 v AFC Bournemouth U21
4. 14′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–23–52
5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Brighton U21 0–1 AFC Bournemouth U21
6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' AFC Bournemouth U21 win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Brighton U21 win 26%)
8. 15′C. Stevens scores for AFC Bournemouth U21 on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 26–23–52
9. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Brighton U21 1–1 AFC Bournemouth U21
10. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
11. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Brighton U21 win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was AFC Bournemouth U21 win 27%)
12. 17′16′: H. Kasvosve on the scoresheet for Brighton U21, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 48–25–27
13. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Brighton U21
14. 43′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 42–33–26
15. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
16. 45′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–25–59
17. 45′AFC Bournemouth U21 find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–25–59
18. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Brighton U21 1–2 AFC Bournemouth U21
19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 16% now
20. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' AFC Bournemouth U21 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Brighton U21 win 16%)
21. 45′HALF-TIME Brighton U21 1–2 AFC Bournemouth U21
22. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 16% now
23. 46′SECOND HALF Brighton U21 1–2 AFC Bournemouth U21
24. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Bournemouth U21 · On: J. Azzouz Scafe · Off: V. Milosavljevic
25. 49′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–60
26. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
27. 59′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 2–2 · 35–42–23
28. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' AFC Bournemouth U21
29. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Brighton U21 2–2 AFC Bournemouth U21
30. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 35% now
31. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was AFC Bournemouth U21 win 23%)
32. 60′A goal for Brighton U21 on 60′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 35–43–22
33. 61′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
34. 61′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–44–22
35. 61′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 34–44–22
36. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brighton U21 · On: G. Munday · Off: V. Joseph
37. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brighton U21 · On: D. Lane · Off: H. Kasvosve
38. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Brighton U21 · On: K. Shaw · Off: A. Palmer
39. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
40. 74′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–60–16
41. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
42. 78′We said Brighton U21 at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–3 · 2–17–80
43. 78′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–17–80
44. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Brighton U21 2–3 AFC Bournemouth U21
45. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 2% now
46. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' AFC Bournemouth U21 win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
47. 79′AFC Bournemouth U21 score on 78′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 2–16–82
48. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Brighton U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
49. 94′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–96–2
50. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' AFC Bournemouth U21
51. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Brighton U21 3–3 AFC Bournemouth U21
52. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was AFC Bournemouth U21 win 2%)
53. 95′Brighton U21 find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–2
54. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' AFC Bournemouth U21 · On: J. Spence · Off: M. Dacosta
55. FTFULL TIME Brighton U21 3–3 AFC Bournemouth U21
56. FTBrighton U21 3–3 AFC Bournemouth U21 · Brighton U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.