Birmingham City U21 v Derby County U21 prediction · Premier League 2 Division One

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30

Birmingham City U21 0–4 Derby County U21 BIRMINGHAM CITY U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham City U21 win~~47%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.440

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham City U21 win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham City U21 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–32
1′KICK-OFF Birmingham City U21 v Derby County U21
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Birmingham City U21
4′We said Birmingham City U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–20–54
4′Derby County U21 find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–20–54
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Birmingham City U21 0–1 Derby County U21
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Birmingham City U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Derby County U21 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Birmingham City U21 win 46%)
7′Derby County U21 ahead on 3′ through M. Mintus. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–20–54
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Derby County U21
14′We said Birmingham City U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
25′A goal for Derby County U21 on 25′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 9–13–78
25′We said Birmingham City U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–13–78
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Birmingham City U21 0–2 Derby County U21
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Birmingham City U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Birmingham City U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
39′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 0–2 · 6–12–82
45′HALF-TIME Birmingham City U21 0–2 Derby County U21
46′SECOND HALF Birmingham City U21 0–2 Derby County U21
47′We said Birmingham City U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Derby County U21 · On: K. Robinson · Off: J. Davidson
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Derby County U21 · On: D. Hodges · Off: M. Mintus
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Birmingham City U21 · On: F. Hawkeswood · Off: F. McGreevy
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Birmingham City U21
52′Derby County U21 score on 51′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Birmingham City U21 0–3 Derby County U21
53′Derby County U21 find the net on 53′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–1–99
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Birmingham City U21 0–4 Derby County U21
54′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–1–99
57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Derby County U21 · On: I. Green · Off: Z. Marsh
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Birmingham City U21 · On: C. Reilly · Off: D. Martin-Moore
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Birmingham City U21 · On: B. Campbell · Off: L. McCourtie
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Derby County U21
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Derby County U21 · On: K. Wren · Off: C. Wilson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Birmingham City U21 · On: N. Hoarau · Off: A. Da Silva
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Derby County U21 · On: S. Corry · Off: I. Gordon
FTFULL TIME Birmingham City U21 0–4 Derby County U21
FTBirmingham City U21 0–4 Derby County U21 · Birmingham City U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Birmingham City U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Birmingham City U21 47%, draw 21%, Derby County U21 32%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Birmingham City U21 v Derby County U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Birmingham City U21 win47%

Draw21%

Derby County U21 win32%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundRegular season

VenueDamson Park

RefereeJ. Durkin

Line-ups

Birmingham City U21

Derby County U21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Birmingham City U21

Derby County U21

6Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Birmingham City U21

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Warmington

2 R. Thompson-Jones

4 L. McCourtie

5 J. Quirk

3 C. Chahal

8 D. Martin-Moore

6 C. Maddox

14 A. Da Silva

10 T. Elmansuri

11 F. McGreevy

9 T. Ugorji

Coach · Scott Sellars

Substitutes

1 · W. O'Sullivan

12 · F. Hawkeswood

15 · N. Hoarau

16 · C. Reilly

17 · B. Campbell

Derby County U21

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Djedje

2 I. Gordon

4 R. Offor

5 A. Osayande

3 F. Jones

6 M. Tola

8 M. Mintus

7 C. Wilson

10 C. Smith

11 J. Davidson

9 Z. Marsh

Coach · Danny Maye

Substitutes

13 · A. Halliwell

12 · S. Corry

14 · L. Banks

15 · D. Hodges

16 · I. Green

17 · K. Wren

18 · K. Robinson

Our number · birmingham city u21 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

47% The market32%

Us47%

~~Market~~32%

We make Birmingham City U21 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Birmingham City U21 v Derby County U21~~2.08 – 1.69

~~Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~26 v 20

~~The market · Birmingham City U21 win~~32% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham City U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birmingham City U21 win	47%	32%	+15
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Derby County U21 win	32%	46%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Both teams to score	71%	68%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Birmingham City U21 or draw	68%	54%	+14
Birmingham City U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–
Derby County U21 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.5 3.9 3.4 1 4.8 8.1 6.8 3.9 2 5.0 8.2 6.9 3.9 3 3.5 5.7 4.8 2.7 4 3.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birmingham City U21 down, Derby County U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.5% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Birmingham City U21 at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Derby County U21 away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Birmingham City U21, 1.69 for Derby County U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DER 0–3 BIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League 2 Division One this season · since 24 Aug

BIRMINGHAM CITY U21

DLD3–3 · 2–4 · 0–0

DERBY COUNTY U21

WDLL3–1 · 4–4 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	+4	10
7	Fulham U21	5	+4	10
8	Norwich City U21	5	+3	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	+2	8
12	Aston Villa U21	5	0	8
13	Crystal Palace U21	4	+4	7
14	Reading U21	5	0	7
15	Leeds United U21	5	−1	7
16	Brentford U21	5	+1	6
17	Brighton U21	5	−2	5
18	West Ham United U21	5	−2	5
19	Stoke City U21	5	+1	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	−3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	−2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	−4	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	4	−8	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0