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Arsenal U21 v Sunderland U21

Arsenal U21

2–2Full time

Sunderland U21

Premier League 2 Division One · SAT 10 OCT · Meadow Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Arsenal U21 2–2 Sunderland U21 ARSENAL U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal U21 win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.933

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.946

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal U21 win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF Arsenal U21 v Sunderland U21
2′Much as we predicted: Arsenal U21 was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–21–39
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arsenal U21 0–0 Sunderland U21
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arsenal U21 0–1 Sunderland U21
22′16′ and it is 0–1: T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi on the scoresheet for Sunderland U21. 0–1 · 18–20–62
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Arsenal U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Sunderland U21 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Arsenal U21 win 18%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Arsenal U21 1–1 Sunderland U21 · T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Arsenal U21 1–1 Sunderland U21
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Sunderland U21
43′Arsenal U21 ahead on 33′ through J. Scanlon. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–31–34
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Arsenal U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
45′K. Munyakazi scores for Sunderland U21 on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–31–34
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Sunderland U21
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21 · K. Munyakazi
48′SECOND HALF Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21
54′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Arsenal U21
66′We said Arsenal U21 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Arsenal U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' E. Upson · Arsenal U21
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Arsenal U21 · On: T. Murisa · Off: I. Ibrahim
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Alese · Sunderland U21
73′🟥 RED CARD · 72' A. Alese · Sunderland U21
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sunderland U21 · On: A. Lightfoot · Off: M. Neill
84′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21 · T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi (assist T. Proctor)
84′⚽ GOAL · 33' Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21 · J. Scanlon (assist E. Mooney)
84′🟨 YELLOW · 43' B. Kindon · Sunderland U21
84′🟨 YELLOW · 46' A. Alese · Sunderland U21
84′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal U21 1–2 Sunderland U21 · T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 56' B. Clarke · Arsenal U21
84′🟨 YELLOW · 67' E. Upson · Arsenal U21
84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Arsenal U21 · On: T. Murisa · Off: I. Ibrahim
84′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Alese · Sunderland U21
84′🟥 RED CARD · 72' A. Alese · Sunderland U21
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sunderland U21 · On: A. Lightfoot · Off: M. Neill
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sunderland U21 · On: J. Barker · Off: T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi
87′A red card for Sunderland U21 on 72′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–6–94
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Arsenal U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Arsenal U21 2–2 Sunderland U21 · T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Arsenal U21 2–2 Sunderland U21 · A. Harriman-Annous (assist M. Hashi)
FTFULL TIME Arsenal U21 2–2 Sunderland U21
FTArsenal U21 2–2 Sunderland U21 · Arsenal U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arsenal U21 win40%

Draw21%

Sunderland U21 win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Meadow Park

Referee · D. Blades

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arsenal U21

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ranson

2 B. Clarke

5 J. Dixon

6 I. Ibrahim

3 M. Washington

7 E. Nwaneri

4 M. Salmon

8 C. O'Neill

10 J. Scanlon

9 E. Mooney

11 A. Harriman-Annous

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · J. Porter

12 · E. Upson

14 · J. Ogunnaike

15 · T. Murisa

16 · T. Julienne

17 · M. Hashi

18 · M. Bernard

Sunderland U21

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Cowan

2 A. Lienard

5 A. Alese

6 B. Kindon

3 J. Jones

7 C. Dinsdale

4 J. Whittaker

8 K. Munyakazi

10 T. Proctor

9 T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi

11 M. Neill

Coach · Matt Craddock

Substitutes

12 · L. Bell

13 · B. Metcalf

14 · A. Lightfoot

15 · L. Hunt

16 · F. Scott

17 · J. Barker

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal U21

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ranson

2 B. Clarke

5 J. Dixon

6 I. Ibrahim

3 M. Washington

7 E. Nwaneri

4 M. Salmon

8 C. O'Neill

10 J. Scanlon

9 E. Mooney

11 A. Harriman-Annous

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · J. Porter

12 · E. Upson

14 · J. Ogunnaike

15 · T. Murisa

16 · T. Julienne

17 · M. Hashi

18 · M. Bernard

Sunderland U21

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Cowan

2 A. Lienard

5 A. Alese

6 B. Kindon

3 J. Jones

7 C. Dinsdale

4 J. Whittaker

8 K. Munyakazi

10 T. Proctor

9 T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi

11 M. Neill

Coach · Matt Craddock

Substitutes

12 · L. Bell

13 · B. Metcalf

14 · A. Lightfoot

15 · L. Hunt

16 · F. Scott

17 · J. Barker

Our number · arsenal u21 winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Arsenal U21 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arsenal u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal U21 win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	21%	21%	0
Sunderland U21 win	39%	35%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Both teams to score	73%	70%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	90%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	54%	51%	+3
Arsenal U21 or draw	61%	65%	−4
Arsenal U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Sunderland U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.3 4.0 3.9 2.5 1 4.0 7.9 7.4 4.8 2.3 2 4.0 7.5 7.1 4.6 2.2 3 2.6 4.8 4.6 3.0 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal U21 down, Sunderland U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,574 Premier League 2 Division One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League 2 Division One matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal U21 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sunderland U21 away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Arsenal U21, 1.93 for Sunderland U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SUN 3–1 ARS · ARS 1–2 SUN · SUN 1–2 ARS

Form · last six in Premier League 2 Division One

ARSENAL U21

LLDDLD0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–0

SUNDERLAND U21

LLWLWW1–2 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 1–5 · 4–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	4	+6	10
2	Southampton U21	4	+5	10
3	Manchester United U21	3	+9	9
4	Chelsea U21	4	+5	9
5	Sunderland U21	4	+4	9
6	AFC Bournemouth U21	4	+2	9
7	Nottingham Forest U21	4	0	9
8	Liverpool U21	4	+4	7
9	Fulham U21	4	+3	7
10	Leeds United U21	4	+2	7
11	Reading U21	4	+1	7
12	Norwich City U21	4	+1	7
13	Brentford U21	4	+2	6
14	Everton U21	4	+1	5
15	West Ham United U21	4	0	5
16	Aston Villa U21	4	−1	5
17	Stoke City U21	4	+2	4
18	Crystal Palace U21	3	+1	4
19	Brighton U21	4	−2	4
20	Derby County U21	4	−3	4
21	Manchester City U21	3	+1	3
22	Burnley U21	4	−1	3
23	Arsenal U21	4	−3	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	−3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	−4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	−2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	4	−3	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	−3	1
29	Leicester City U21	3	−6	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	−8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	−10	0