Yate Town v Wimborne Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Yate TownDrawWimborne Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Wimborne Town 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wimborne Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Yate Town 36%, draw 25%, Wimborne Town 39%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Yate Town v Wimborne TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Yate Town win36%

Draw25%

Wimborne Town win39%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yate Town

Wimborne Town

7Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
15	Yate Town	12	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wimborne town winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Wimborne Town a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yate Town v Wimborne Town~~1.37 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yate Town win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Wimborne Town win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Yate Town or draw	61%	–	–
Yate Town clean sheet	24%	–	–
Wimborne Town clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.4 8.5 6.3 3.1 1 8.1 11.8 8.3 4.1 2 5.6 7.9 5.7 2.8 3 2.6 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yate Town down, Wimborne Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yate Town at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wimborne Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Yate Town, 1.45 for Wimborne Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~WIM 4–0 YAT · YAT 1–1 WIM · WIM 4–1 YAT · YAT 0–2 WIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

YATE TOWN

WLDLLD3–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1

WIMBORNE TOWN

DWWWLW0–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 6–3 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	+12	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	−4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
15	Yate Town	12	−9	13
16	Evesham United	13	−11	13
17	Sholing	11	−4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9