Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Yate Town v Sholing

Yate Town v Sholing

Yate Town

1–1Full time

Sholing

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Yate Town 1–1 Sholing SHOLING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sholing win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.852

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sholing win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sholing was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Yate Town v Sholing
32′A goal for Sholing on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–66
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Yate Town 0–1 Sholing
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
33′We published Sholing at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–67
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
45′Yate Town score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–37–32
45′44′: A. Weston on the scoresheet for Yate Town, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–37–32
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Yate Town 1–1 Sholing
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Sholing win 69%)
45′HALF-TIME Yate Town 1–1 Sholing
46′SECOND HALF Yate Town 1–1 Sholing
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
65′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
73′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
79′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
84′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Sholing win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said Sholing at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Yate Town 1–1 Sholing
FTYate Town 1–1 Sholing · Sholing win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sholing just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Yate Town 37%, draw 25%, Sholing 38%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Yate Town v SholingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Yate Town win37%

Draw25%

Sholing win38%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yate Town

Sholing

7Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sholing winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Sholing a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yate Town v Sholing~~1.47 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~16 v 17

~~The market · Sholing win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sholing win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yate Town win	37%	32%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Sholing win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Yate Town or draw	62%	59%	+3
Yate Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sholing clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.6 5.8 2.9 1 7.5 11.3 8.3 4.2 2 5.6 8.1 6.0 3.0 3 2.8 4.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yate Town down, Sholing across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yate Town at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sholing away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Yate Town, 1.50 for Sholing. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~YAT 0–0 SHO · SHO 2–0 YAT · YAT 0–0 SHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

YATE TOWN

LWLDLL1–4 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 2–3

SHOLING

LWLWDL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8