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Yate Town v Berkhamsted

Yate Town
0–3Full time
Berkhamsted

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33
Yate Town 0–3 Berkhamsted YATE TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Yate Town win37%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.608
The market’s Brier score0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yate Town win at 37%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Yate Town v Berkhamsted
  3. 6′Much as we predicted: Yate Town was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Yate Town 0–0 Berkhamsted
  5. 47′SECOND HALF Yate Town 0–0 Berkhamsted
  6. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Yate Town 0–1 Berkhamsted
  7. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Yate Town 0–2 Berkhamsted
  8. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Yate Town 0–3 Berkhamsted
  9. FTFULL TIME Yate Town 0–3 Berkhamsted
  10. FTYate Town 0–3 Berkhamsted · Yate Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yate Town win37%
Draw26%
Berkhamsted win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yate town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19
37% The market35%
Us37%
Market35%

We make Yate Town a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 03:55
Our probability · yate town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yate Town win37%35%+2
Draw26%28%−1
Berkhamsted win37%37%−1
Over 2.5 goals50%51%0
Both teams to score54%56%−2
Over 1.5 goals75%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals29%30%−1
Yate Town or draw63%63%+1
Yate Town clean sheet27%––
Berkhamsted clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.2 8.9 6.1 2.8 1 9.0 12.3 8.0 3.6 2 6.2 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.8 3.7 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yate Town down, Berkhamsted across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsBER 1–1 YAT · YAT 0–0 BER

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

YATE TOWN

WLLWLD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 3–3

BERKHAMSTED

WWDWLL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Poole Town10+521
2Plymouth Parkway9+1520
3Uxbridge9+1120
4Hanworth Villa9+919
5Bath City9+517
6Frome Town10+415
7Chertsey Town9+514
8Taunton Town9+113
9Chichester City9−213
10Evesham United9−313
11Berkhamsted10−313
12Wimborne Town8+612
13Gosport Borough10012
14Yate Town9−512
15Bracknell Town9−711
16Sholing8−310
17Basingstoke Town9−29
18Hanwell Town8−37
19Gloucester City9−57
20Chippenham Town8−97
21Havant & Wville9−75
22Malvern Town9−125

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.