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Wimborne Town v Havant & Wville

Wimborne Town

6–3Full time

Havant & Wville

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Wimborne Town 6–3 Havant & Wville WIMBORNE TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wimborne Town win~~42%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.506

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wimborne Town win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF Wimborne Town v Havant & Wville
6′J. McQuoid scores for Wimborne Town on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–14
6′⚽ GOAL · 8' Wimborne Town 1–0 Havant & Wville · J. McQuoid
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Wimborne Town win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Wimborne Town 1–1 Havant & Wville
26′Wimborne Town ahead on 28′ through A. Diaz. 2–1. 2–1 · 69–20–11
26′⚽ GOAL · 24' Wimborne Town 2–1 Havant & Wville
45′HALF-TIME Wimborne Town 2–1 Havant & Wville
47′SECOND HALF Wimborne Town 2–1 Havant & Wville
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Wimborne Town 3–1 Havant & Wville · A. Diaz
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Wimborne Town 4–1 Havant & Wville
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Wimborne Town 5–1 Havant & Wville
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Wimborne Town 6–1 Havant & Wville
FTFULL TIME Wimborne Town 6–3 Havant & Wville
FTWimborne Town 6–3 Havant & Wville · Wimborne Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wimborne Town win42%

Draw25%

Havant & Wville win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wimborne town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Wimborne Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wimborne town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wimborne Town win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Havant & Wville win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	0
Wimborne Town or draw	67%	72%	−5
Wimborne Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Havant & Wville clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 7.5 5.1 2.3 1 8.7 11.7 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.7 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wimborne Town down, Havant & Wville across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wimborne Town at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Havant & Wville away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Wimborne Town, 1.32 for Havant & Wville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAV 4–0 WIM · WIM 3–1 HAV · HAV 2–0 WIM · WIM 1–2 HAV

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

WIMBORNE TOWN

DWDDWW1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–0

HAVANT & WVILLE

LDLLLD1–2 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5