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Wimborne Town v Gosport Borough

Wimborne Town

3–0Full time

Gosport Borough

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:01

Wimborne Town 3–0 Gosport Borough WIMBORNE TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wimborne Town win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wimborne Town win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wimborne Town 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Wimborne Town v Gosport Borough
15′A goal for Wimborne Town on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Wimborne Town 1–0 Gosport Borough
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Wimborne Town win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
16′We said Wimborne Town at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Wimborne Town 1–0 Gosport Borough
46′SECOND HALF Wimborne Town 1–0 Gosport Borough
49′Wimborne Town score on 49′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Wimborne Town 2–0 Gosport Borough
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Wimborne Town win: 45% at kick-off, 94% now
50′We said Wimborne Town at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′We said Wimborne Town at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Wimborne Town win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
83′We said Wimborne Town at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′Wimborne Town find the net on 85′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Wimborne Town 3–0 Gosport Borough
FTFULL TIME Wimborne Town 3–0 Gosport Borough
FTWimborne Town 3–0 Gosport Borough · Wimborne Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wimborne Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wimborne Town 45%, draw 25%, Gosport Borough 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Wimborne Town v Gosport BoroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Wimborne Town win45%

Draw25%

Gosport Borough win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wimborne Town

Gosport Borough

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wimborne town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Wimborne Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wimborne Town v Gosport Borough~~1.61 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~12 v 8

~~The market · Wimborne Town win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wimborne Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wimborne Town win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	0
Gosport Borough win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Wimborne Town or draw	70%	76%	−6
Wimborne Town clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gosport Borough clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 7.1 4.6 1 9.0 11.5 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 3.9 4.8 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wimborne Town down, Gosport Borough across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wimborne Town at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gosport Borough away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Wimborne Town, 1.26 for Gosport Borough. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIM 1–0 GOS · GOS 1–0 WIM · GOS 1–1 WIM · WIM 1–0 GOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

WIMBORNE TOWN

DDWWWL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 6–3 · 1–2

GOSPORT BOROUGH

WDDLWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8