Uxbridge v Malvern Town prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Uxbridge 3–0 Malvern Town UXBRIDGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uxbridge win~~65%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uxbridge win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Uxbridge 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–18
1′KICK-OFF Uxbridge v Malvern Town
20′Malvern Town are down to ten from 20′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 60–21–19
20′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Malvern Town
32′Uxbridge find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
32′We said Uxbridge at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Uxbridge 1–0 Malvern Town
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Uxbridge win: 65% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Uxbridge 1–0 Malvern Town
46′SECOND HALF Uxbridge 1–0 Malvern Town
67′A goal for Uxbridge on 67′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
67′We said Uxbridge at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Uxbridge 2–0 Malvern Town
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Uxbridge win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
72′Uxbridge score on 72′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Uxbridge 3–0 Malvern Town
73′71′: F. Amartey on the scoresheet for Uxbridge, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′We said Uxbridge at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Uxbridge 3–0 Malvern Town
FTUxbridge 3–0 Malvern Town · Uxbridge win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uxbridge are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uxbridge 65%, draw 17%, Malvern Town 18%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Uxbridge v Malvern TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Uxbridge win65%

Draw17%

Malvern Town win18%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uxbridge

Malvern Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uxbridge winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

65% The market60%

Us65%

~~Market~~60%

We make Uxbridge a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uxbridge v Malvern Town~~2.63 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 11~~3 v 19

~~The market · Uxbridge win~~60% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Uxbridge win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uxbridge win	65%	60%	+5
Draw	17%	21%	−4
Malvern Town win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	75%	65%	+10
Both teams to score	68%	61%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	55%	45%	+10
Uxbridge or draw	82%	82%	0
Uxbridge clean sheet	27%	–	–
Malvern Town clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.2 2.6 1 5.1 6.8 4.4 2 6.6 8.6 5.6 2.5 3 5.7 7.4 4.9 2.2 4 3.8 4.9 3.2 5 2.0 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Uxbridge down, Malvern Town across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Uxbridge at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Malvern Town away: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Uxbridge, 1.33 for Malvern Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

UXBRIDGE

WDWLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

MALVERN TOWN

LWLLWW0–5 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8